Poker Coach Rivers The Nuts in High Stakes Cash Game ($26,543 Analysis)
Upswing Lab coach David Yan spent part of this past summer battling in high stakes cash games online.
Today’s hand analysis is going to look at a $26,543 pot that he played in a $50/$100 game on GGPoker vs Tobias Duthweiler.
For those who don’t know, Tobias is one of the world’s best cash game players.
Let’s dive in!
Preflop Action
Tobias raises to $250 from the Button with Ac Tc. David Yan 3-bets to $1,150 from the Small Blind with Jd Td. Tobias calls.
Simple Preflop Analysis
Tobias makes the correct decision to raise and call the 3-bet. Ace-Ten suited is strong enough to open from every position, and it’s a powerhouse hand on the Button.
David makes a good decision to 3-bet with Jack-Ten suited. He should be playing tight overall from the Small Blind, but Jack-Ten suited is strong enough to attack what should be a loose Button raise.
Against the 3-bet, Tobias has an easy call with Ace-Ten suited.
Advanced Preflop Analysis
Tobias’ raising range on the Button should consist of around the top 40-45% of hands. Sizing-wise, anywhere from 2bb-2.5bb is good.
David should be 3-betting with a frequency of around 13-15% from the Small Blind against a Button raise. He should do so premium hands, middling pocket pairs, some suited Ax hands, suited Broadways, some suited connectors, and some offsuit Broadways. His sizing of 11.5bb is good.
Both players have played this hand perfectly so far.
Flop Action
The flop comes Ks 8s 2c. The pot is $2,400.
David bets $792. Tobias calls.
Simple Flop Analysis
Both players miss the flop, but there are still some actions to analyze.
David makes a good c-bet with Jack-Ten. He is bluffing with his hand to try and fold out stronger hands that missed like Ah 9h or Qd Jd.
Tobias makes the correct call with Ace-Ten of clubs. Even though he has nothing yet, he is beating bluffs and has a backdoor flush draw to the nuts. That’s worthy of a call, especially in position.
Advanced Flop Analysis
On this of flop, David will have the range and nut advantage by holding the unique overpair (Pocket Aces), unique top set (Pocket Kings), and an asymmetrical amount of top pairs compared to Tobias.
All of these are arguments for a highly aggressive c-betting strategy. Because the advantage is so overwhelming, the stack-to-pot ratio (SPR) is small, and due to being out-of-position, the optimal strategy is to c-bet with his entire range for a small size.
Another reason why this strategy works is because David has a lot of decently strong yet vulnerable hands such as Pocket Tens and Pocket Nines that prefer to c-bet for a small size for value and protection (rather than risk facing a large stab and being put in a tougher spot).
Against this strategy, Tobias should defend with a very wide range. He should call with most of his made hands, all draws, and strong backdoor draws (like his Ac Tc).
Turn Action
The turn comes the Ad, making the board Ks 8s 2c Ad. The pot is $3,984.
David bets $1,314. Tobias calls.
Simple Turn Analysis
Tobias makes top pair and David picks up a gutshot straight draw.
David makes a good decision to keep betting. He is still more likely to have a strong hand than Tobias, and he wants to bluff to make middling hands fold.
He may not have an Ace this time, but he will quite frequently have hands like AQ and AJ that love this turn.
With his top pair, Tobias makes the easy call. His hand is obviously too strong to fold, and it’s also too weak to raise for value.
Advanced Turn Analysis
The Ad turn is the best possible card for David’s range as it disproportionately improves his range to top pairs compared to Tobias’. In fact, so much of his range has improved that he will struggle to find enough bluffs to balance out his value hands.
For this reason, and because he is out-of-position (which incentivizes some thin value bets instead of bluff-catching), he should mostly use a block bet sizing. This small bet strategy is designed to extract value with middle pairs and better while bluffing Tobias off of pocket pairs that are too weak to continue.
Just think how awesome it is for David to make this small bet and force a fold from a hand like Pocket Tens. That’s a cheap, efficient bluff!
Tobias has an easy call here with top pair. Given the great pot odds, Tobias should always continue here with most of his pairs (Ax, Kx, 8x) and draws.
Note: If you want an in-depth look at block betting, check out the Upswing Lab module Block Betting by Gary Blackwood (members only).
River Action
The river comes the Qd, making the final board Ks 8s 2c Ad Qd. The pot is $6,613.
David overbets all-in for $9,920.
Simple River Analysis
The perfect card for David as he makes the nut straight while the flush draw misses. That’s the Upswing Poker run good for you!
With the nuts, David has no choice but to go all-in. It’s a huge bet of about 1.5x pot, but he wants to extract maximum value with the nuts.
Tobias is in a brutal spot and you can’t fault him for calling or folding. He has a good bluff-catcher given he holds both an Ace and a Ten, making it less likely David has a strong hand for value like Pocket Aces, Ace-King, or Jack-Ten.
Advanced River Analysis
The river Qd is amazing for David. A huge portion of his range has improved — much moreso than Tobias. Hands such as Ace-Queen, King-Queen, and Jack-Ten suited, which have improved for both players, represent a wider portion of David’s range than Tobias’.
In David’s shoes, he should split his range into two different bet sizes. With some hands, he should block bet for value. Hands such as Ace-Jack and Ace-Ten come to mind.
On the other hand, a hand such as Jack-Ten and Pocket Eights will prefer shoving to maximize value vs Tobias’ Ax and Kx, as those hands unblock his bluff-catching range.
Jamming here with the nuts is likely the correct decision from David. That said, mixing this hand into the block betting range at some frequency is a good way to protect that range.
Now, back to Tobias, who has a pure bluff-catcher. He needs to consider how likely it is that David is over-bluffing (i.e. bluffing too often) in this spot. He needs David to have at least 37.5% bluffs in his range to make this a breakeven call.
At first glance, it might seem like an easy decision to fold if you’ve been playing lower-difficulty games. That is because it’s really hard to find the right bluffs.
But these two are among the best players in the world. David is an aware player who is capable of taking this line with unintuitive bluffs such as Pocket Sevens, Pocket Sixes, Queen-Jack suited, and Queen-Ten suited.
The bluff-catching game is always a tricky one to play on the river. You have to know your opponent’s tendencies to make the right decision more frequently than the pot odds dictate.
Results
Tobias calls. David wins the $26,453 pot with the nut straight.
What would you do on the river as Tobias?
Let me know in the comments below.
This was a pretty standard hand from both players. There were no clear mistakes made by either of them.
With enough history, though, we could begin to discern patterns in each of the player’s games and likely find tendencies such as betting too often or too little with certain types of hands. That’s the game at the highest stakes, it’s not about blunders as much as it is about finding spots where your opponent’s range is slightly out of tune.
That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned from it! As usual, if you have any questions or feedback feel free to leave a comment in the section down below.
Want more high stakes hand analysis? Check out Is This The Best Play Of 2024? ($53,890 All-In Analysis)
Till’ next time, good luck, grinders!
