
Nightmare for Pocket Aces! Huge Hands Collide in Massive Pot
Sometimes losing a massive pot is avoidable; sometimes it isn’t.ย
Let’s take a look at a huge pot from a high stakes poker stream at Lodge Card Club.
The stakes are $25/$50 (with a $50 ante). As if that wasn’t big enough stakes, there’s a $100 straddle and a $200 double straddle on for this hand.
Once you’ve read what happened, drop a comment to let me know if you would have played the hand differently as either player.
I’ll start by recapping the action on each street, followed by simple + advanced analysis.
Preflop Action
The action folds to T-Fund Matt, who calls from the Small Blind with Th 7h.
Brandon raises to $800 from the Big Blind with Ah Ad.
Bulldog calls from the double straddle with Kd 3d. T-Fund Matt calls.
The effective stacks between Brandon and Bulldog are $25,000.
Simple Preflop Analysis
Matt should raise with his T7-suited when the action folds to him. It’s a borderline hand, but it’s still strong enough to raise with only 3 players behind. Calling is a bit too passive of a move with so many players behind, especially when out of position against all of them.
Brandon makes a good raise with Pocket Aces. He wants to create as large of a pot as possible right away, and his raise size (4x the biggest straddle) is appropriate.
Bulldog follows by making a good call with K3-suited. He is getting great pot odds and is guaranteed to play in position for the rest of the hand.ย
Matt should just fold against the raise. Both remaining players have position on him and his hand is marginal.
Advanced Preflop Analysis
This is quite an unusual preflop setup. Let’s use some logic to estimate how each player should approach it.
For Matt in the Small Blind, this is somewhat similar to playing from the Cutoff in a normal two-blind game because there are 3 players behind. There are a couple of key differences, though:
- He is out of position against all 3 players, which should make him play tighter than a standard Cutoff raising range.
- He has a bit of money invested already, which incentivizes him to play looser.
It’s tough to say which factor has a greater impact, but I think it’s likely that they roughly even out. Therefore, I’d raise with the top 25-30% of hands in Matt’s shoes. My raise size would be 2.5x the biggest straddle ($500).
With this in mind, Matt’s T7-suited is a borderline raise. Limping is the worst option since he doesn’t gain any fold equity and can end up facing a raise while OOP versus all of the remaining players.
Brandon has a very easy decision to raise with Pocket Aces. Size-wise, his 4x raise seems appropriate considering the pot odds heโs offering to Matt. He, too, should be raising with the top 25-30% of hands in this situation.
Bulldog has a clearly profitable call with K3-suited. He’s getting good pot odds and he is guaranteed to play in position, which will allow him to realize more equity.
As played, Matt should fold his suited gapper. It will be tough to realize enough equity to make this call profitable since he’s OOP versus both players.
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Flop Action
The flop comes As 9d 6d. The pot is $2,550.
Matt checks. Brandon bets $1,000. Bulldog calls. Matt folds.
Simple Flop Analysis
An action flop connects with every player: Matt has a gutshot straight draw, Brandon top set, and Bulldog the second nut flush draw.
Matt’s decisions to check and fold his T7-suited are good. His gutshot is too weak to profitably call, even given the solid pot odds. It sure doesn’t help that one of his outs also completes a potential flush.
With top set, Brandon should bet small or check. His hand obviously benefits from increasing the size of the pot and charging draws, but this very dynamic flop vs two opponents should lead him to a more passive strategy overall. Checking with top set would be a smart move, though his $1,000 bet is also a good choice.ย
Bulldog should call with his strong flush draw. Folding is out of the question and there are better candidates with which to raise. It’s worth noting that he has great implied odds to get paid when he hits his flush.
Advanced Flop Analysis
I’ll focus on the key decision points for this advanced analysis. Starting with Brandon’s initial check.
Even though he has the nuts, Brandon should probably play a conservative strategy here, looking to mostly check with his entire range.
The reason for this is because he is out of position against one of the players and both opponents can have two pairs or sets. While his actual hand wants to increase the size of the pot ASAP, his range wants to play defensively due to this dynamic. When much of your range wants to play defensively, you should also play defensively with some (or all) of your strongest hands.
As played, Brandon’s bet size is decent. A small bet size allows Bulldog and Matt to continue with low pocket pairs, which can then get coolered if those hands turn an unlucky set. But at the same time, this size doesnโt punish the draws that can now easily call.
Speaking of easy calls, Bulldog has just that with the second nut flush draw.ย
Matt makes a good laydown with his gutshot, even against the small bet. He understood that when the preflop raiser fires a c-bet and the other player calls, his lowly gutshot without a backdoor flush draw is too weak to continue.ย
Turn Action
The turn comes the 4d, making the board As 9d 6d 4d. The pot is $4,550.
Brandon checks. Bulldog bets $3,000. Brandon calls.
Simple Turn Analysis
The turn gives Bulldog the lead with the second nut flush. But Brandon does have a flush draw of his own with the Ad in his hand.
Brandon makes a good check with Pocket Aces. While it’s a very strong hand, it will be hard to bet and get called by worse very often. Some hands like Ac Jd or maybe 9s 6s will call a bet, but most of the hands that Bulldog continues with will be a flush.
Bulldog makes a good choice to bet, but I would have bet a little bigger. You should generally base your bet sizes around the types of hands with which you’d want to value bet. In this case, Bulldog would only bet with quite strong hands (mostly flushes), so I’d bet more like $3,600.
Brandon has a clear call on the turn. He can beat bluffs and, if he is behind, he has outs to improve to a full house or nut flush on the river.
Advanced Turn Analysis
The turn 4d completes the flush. Bulldog is the player who is much more likely to have the flush because of the flop action. Brandon’s c-bet range is more value-heavy, while Bulldog’s calling range will include plenty of draws.
Checking with Pocket Aces on the turn is probably the best move. He is blocking a lot of the weaker bluff-catchers that Bulldog might call with (like Ah Jd). By betting, he will likely force Bulldog to continue with only the strongest hands (i.e. flushes).
Bulldog has to bet on the turn; he cannot miss getting value. I would go for a bit of a larger size, something like 75-80% pot. It’s not a massive difference, but Brandon’s calling range would not change against a slightly bigger size. Adding on that extra few hundred bucks allows him to get more value and setup a bigger bet on the river.
Brandon has a clear-cut call on the turn. His hand is not strong enough to raise for value and folding is out of the question with top set and the nut flush draw.
River Action
The river comes the Qh, making the final board As 9d 6d 4d Qh. The pot is $10,550.
Brandon checks. Bulldog bets $11,000.
Simple River Analysis
The river Qh changes nothing.
Brandon should check. This is brutal to say about such a strong hand: he’s holding a pure bluff-catcher at this point.
Bulldog makes the correct decision to bet. Many different bet sizes have merit, here, but his slight overbet definitely makes sense. He could arguably go even bigger.
Brandon has to call with this hand. He blocks the nuts and beats all of the bluffs. It’s a brutal cooler.
Advanced River Analysis
Brandon should always check on the river. There is no benefit to donking without having the nut advantage.
Bulldog should obviously bet for value here. The question now is: what is the best size?
In theory, if Brandon never has slow-played flushes, then Bulldog should always shove with his flushes. The problem with that approach is that, in practice, it may be that Brandon would always fold (which is a disaster considering that certain sizes will get calls from weaker hands).
The key point here is that each hand category has a certain maximum bet size that they are willing to call. For example, if Brandon has Ad Kh, he will likely be paying up to a small overbet. If he has Ac Kc, then he will likely pay up to a 75% pot bet.ย
These are very player-sensitive. Some looser players will call up to larger sizes with weaker hands, while tighter players will call up to smaller sizes than what I just mentioned.
The key here is to know your customer!
When we see Brandon snap-call the small overbet, one might think that Bulldog made it too small. The flip side is that Brandon doesnโt only have Pocket Aces with the nut blocker in his range, so you need to find the bet size that maximizes against the entire range of hands.
Results
Brandon calls. Bulldog wins the $35,500 pot.
Thatโs all for this article! I hope I was able to open your eyes about certain ideas, about what to do and what not to do.
If you want more high stakes hand analysis, check out Phil Ivey Plays $248,000 Pot vs Eric Persson (Analysis).
As usual, feel free to leave me a comment down below if you have any questions or any kind of feedback.
Tillโ next time, good luck, grinders!
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