When Should You Set Mine with a Pocket Pair? These 5 Tips Will Clear Things Up.

You call a raise with pocket sevens and stare anxiously as the dealer reveals the flop…

Queen… Jack… SEVEN!

As soon as you see that seven, your anxiety fades and your eyes dart to count your opponent’s stack. You’re going to try to get it all.

There is nothing in poker like the thrill of hitting a set. But chasing this feeling at the wrong time is one of the most common and costly mistakes you can make at the table.

So, when should you set mine, and when should you toss your pocket pair in the muck?

I’m about to give you 5 tips that will help you answer these questions.

But first, let’s make sure we’re all on the same page.

What is Set Mining?

Set mining is the act of calling a preflop raise with a pocket pair with the sole objective of flopping a set.

If you miss — which happens about 88% of the time — you will fold your hand as soon as you are faced with a bet. But if you hit, you will try to build a pot and win as much money as possible from your unsuspecting opponent.

Now, let’s get into the tips.

1. The more players there are behind you, the stronger your pocket pair needs to be in order to call a raise.

With many players behind, you’re at a high risk of being squeezed out of the pot when a player behind wakes up with a hand strong enough hand to 3-bet. This is a disaster scenario for your small pocket pairs, which will often be forced to fold before seeing the flop.

For example, when UTG raises in a 9-handed game and you are in UTG+1, you should only call with strong pocket pairs (TT+, 99+, or maybe 88+ depending on the raise size) since UTG’s range is extremely tight and there are 7 players behind. But if you were on the button, you can probably get away with calling pocket pairs as low as 55.

Keep in mind you can call more pocket pairs if the players behind are weak and unlikely to 3-bet. For example, if you’re on the button and both of the blinds are weak players, you can justify calling with every pocket pair down to 22.

If you want to dive deep into the math, ranges and reasoning behind this tip, expand the section below. Otherwise, move onto tip #2.

2. Consider the 3-bet size before set mining.

Most charts that you find online (like the ones provided in the Upswing Lab) are based on the presumption that your opponent is 3-betting to a standard size — 3x the original raise when in position and 4-5x the original raise when out of position.

If, however, you encounter a player that uses smaller or larger 3-bet sizes, you will need to adjust. Specifically, set mine more often against a smaller size and less often against a larger size.

This is the best approach because as your opponent’s 3-bet size changes, so do your pot odds and the stack-to-pot ratio. Those are two key factors when it comes to determining a profitable set mining opportunity.

Something you might see quite frequently if you play live cash games is players 3-betting very small (e.g. 2.5x the original raise). Assuming you’re deep, it will almost always be worth flicking in a few chips to call against these small raises. It might pay off big time if you hit a coveted set.

3. The tighter your opponent’s 3-betting range is, the more pocket pairs you should call with.

Imagine you raise with Pocket Fives to 2.5bb and a very tight player 3-bets to 12.5bb from the Button (100bb effective). You’ve played with this player a lot and believe his range is made of only Pocket Aces and Pocket Kings.

You need to call 10bb to win 28bb which means, according to your pot odds, you need 36% equity to call. Pocket Fives only has 19% equity versus a range of Aces and Kings, but you should still call.

Why? Because almost every time you flop a set, you will take his whole stack (see: implied odds). You have a roughly 12% chance to flop a set — about 1 out of 8 times. This means that, when you do flop the set, you have to win a bit more than 8 times your preflop call (10bb) minus what is already in the pot in order to profit in the long run.

So, in this case: 85bb – 28bb = 57bb is the amount you must win from his stack when you flop a set in order to justify calling. This is very achievable since he has 87.5bb left in his stack, and you’ll likely get all of it unless the board runs out scary for his Aces or Kings.

If your opponent has a wide 3-betting range, on the other hand, you will not win his stack nearly as often ewhen you hit a set. He simply won’t have a hand strong enough to pay you off most of the time. Given your not-so-good pot odds against his big 3-bet, you should fold.

4. As the effective stack gets lower, more of your pocket pairs should 4-bet all-in rather than call

When the effective stack drops to around 50bb, assuming you are facing a pretty strong player (somewhat balanced), there is little difference between calling and 4-bet shoving.

This means that, especially if you are not very confident in your postflop game, you should elect to 4-bet all-in.

This applies most often in tournaments, but make sure you consider the stage of the tournament before shoving! For example, you probably wouldn’t want to make this play when there are a lot of shorter stacks and you’re close to the money bubble.

Most of the time, your opponent will fold and you’ll pick up a nice little pot. Sometimes you’ll get called, but your average equity won’t be so bad when that happens.

Note: Before making this play, I suggest studying some preflop ranges like the ones in the Lucid Poker Trainer. It’s good to understand risky plays like this before you choose to make them. I’ll go over a couple examples of preflop ranges in the expandable section below.

Tip #5: You can set mine after cold-calling and facing a squeeze.

According to preflop simulations, calling the 3-bet after facing a squeeze (regardless if you were the preflop raiser or the preflop callers) is a marginal play, which means that both calling and folding are extremely close in expected value (EV).

In practice, you will need to consider your postflop skill in order to make the highest value play. If you think you can navigate postflop effectively (call when you are ahead, fold when you are behind), then continuing preflop is going to be profitable. If you don’t feel confident in your postflop edge in those pots, then folding and cutting your losses there is going to be your best bet.

For example, suppose you call a raise with [7d 7c and then a player behind 3-bet squeezes. The original raiser calls and the action is back on you. In this spot, you should consider all the factors I’ve discussed (stack depth, player tendencies) and your postflop edge when deciding whether or not to call.

Bonus Tip #6: The Deeper You Are, The More You Should Set Mine

The logic behind this strategy is that the potential payoff (i.e. implied odds) is higher. 

Let’s assume that you’ve open-raised to 2.5bb and your opponent 3-bet to 10bb. 

Consider two scenarios:

1. You are 50 big blinds deep 
2. You are 300 big lines deep

In both situations, you have to call the same amount of big blinds preflop, but your maximum payoff is 6 times larger in the latter case.

The potential loss is also greater in the larger stack-to-pot ratio scenario — it’s possible you’ll get coolered and lose all 300bb — on average you are going to win more big blinds.

Final Thoughts

Set mining is fun and profitable when done right, but it can also be frustrating if you don’t understand the underlying mechanics at work.

Make sure to re-read the tips above when you feel you are uncertain about these spots.

Want to learn more about playing small pairs? Check these out:

• Tournament Players: How to Play Small Pocket Pairs in Tournaments
• Cash Game Players: How to Play Low Pocket Pairs in Cash Games

That’s all for this article. I hope you enjoyed it and that you find it useful and, as usual, if you have any questions or feedback, don’t hesitate to use the comment box down below!

Good luck, grinders!

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