What is Fold Equity and Why Does it Matter?
If youβve played poker for a while, youβve probably heard the term fold equity.
In this article, I am going to explain what fold equity is and why itβs important to understand if you want to maximize your winnings at the tables.
What is Fold Equity?
Fold equity is the probability that a player will fold versus a bet or raise. For example, if thereβs a 33 percent chance your opponent will fold to a bet in a $100 pot, you have 33% fold equity (worth $33) in that pot.
If youβve ever considered the chance that your opponent will fold to a bet, youβve already employed this concept at the table (even if you didnβt realize it at the time).
Note: Some people use the term fold equity to mean this formula instead: [the chance our opponent will fold] * [opponentβs equity in the hand]. However, Upswing Poker does not think thatβs a helpful or practical definition.
Definition from our poker term glossary.
Fold Equity Infographic
Hereβs a handy infographic that shows the fold equity needed for 6 different bet sizes depending on your handβs equity when called:
For example, if you bet 3/4 pot with a hand that has 0% equity when called, you need your opponent to fold more than 43% of the time for your bet to break even.
Why Does Fold Equity Matter?
Fold equity helps shape the optimal strategy on all streets. Whenever you do not have a solid made hand, you need to take into account your fold equity to make the highest EV decision.
The most important use of this concept is for determining profitable bluffs. For a 0% equity bluff to be profitable, for example, your fold equity must be higher than the risk-to-reward ratio of your bet.
The formula for risk-to-reward ratio as the bettor looks like this:
Risk-to-Reward Ratio = [Bet Size / (Bet Size + Pot Size Before the Bet)] x 100
Which can be written in shorthand as:
Risk-to-Reward Ratio = [B / (B + P)] x 100
Example Pot Odds Calculation
Letβs say you bet $50 bet into a $100 pot:
Risk-to-Reward Ratio = [50 / (50 + 100)] x 100
Risk-to-Reward Ratio = 0.33 x 100
Risk-to-Reward Ratio = 33%
In this case, assuming your bluff has 0% equity when called, your $50 bet needs more than 33% fold equity in order to be profitable over the long run.
The more equity you have, the less fold equity you need in order to have a profitable bet. This is because you have not one, but two ways to win β you can either hit your hand or force the fold.
Example of Fold Equity in Action
Suppose youβve reached the turn on a Tβ₯ 7β£ 5β 2β¦ board with $100 in the pot. You have an open-ended straight draw with 9β£ 8β£ and are considering a semi-bluff of $50.
If you decide to drop in the $50 bet, you have two ways to win:
- Your opponent calls and you hit a straight on the river*, which will happen around 18% of the time.
- Your opponent folds.
*Hitting a 9 or 8 may give you the best hand as well, but letβs put that possibility aside for the sake of simplicity.
According to the risk-to-reward calculation in the previous section, this bet size requires more than 33% fold equity to be profitableβ¦
β¦but that was when your bluff had 0% equity.
This time, you have (at least) 18% equity to win when called. So, even if your fold equity is only 25%, your bet is a profitable one because you still have 18% equity when you get called.
Note: Keep in mind that this calculation, while helpful for understanding fold equity, leaves out one important factor: equity realization. Read this article to learn how equity realization comes into play in poker.
Wrapping Up
Fold equity is your best friend when youβre bluffing. Even a 2% difference between the required rick-to-reward ratio and your opponentβs actual folding frequency is enough to make a bet go from losing to profitable.
Iβll leave you with an easy exercise that will sharpen your fold equity estimation skills:
Whenever youβre not in a hand, put yourself in the shoes of one of the players and consider how much fold equity different bet sizes will have. Ask yourself questions like βwill a much bigger bet size render much more fold equity?β or βwill a smaller size have similar fold equity to a large one?β Over time, you should start to get pretty damn precise, which will have majorly positive impacts on your game.
Thatβs all for this article. I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned something new. As usual, if you have any questions or feedback please let me know in the comment section down below!
If you want to learn about more key poker concepts, read Polarized Ranges vs Linear Ranges Explained.
Tillβ next time, good luck, grinders!
