Should Mariano Fold A Set of Deuces? (High Stakes Analysis)
OMC is a fun poker acronym that stands for “old man coffee”. Poker players use this term when referring to older players who are very tight.
But not all older gentlemen are OMCs…
Popular vlogger Mariano found that out the hard way in this high stakes poker hand.
This one took place at Lodge Card Club Austin between Mariano and a regular known as Moe Money.
The stakes are $25/$50 with a $50 big blind ante. The stakes are effectively doubled with a $100 straddle in play. The effective stack is $35,000.
Without any further ado, let’s dive into the action!
Preflop Action
Moe Money raises to $450 from the Lojack with Ah Js. Mariano cold-calls with 2d 2c from the Cutoff. Everyone else folds.
Simple Preflop Analysis
Moe makes a good choice to raise with Ace-Jack offsuit from the Lojack. However, his sizing is a bit too large. He would be better off raising to 2.5x or 3x the straddle ($250 or $300).
Even though he has a pocket pair, Mariano’s cold-call with Pocket Twos from the Cutoff is on the loose side. It’s worth noting that, because they are so deep, he actually has some reverse implied odds with this hand (because a set-over-set scenario will be very costly).
Advanced Preflop Analysis
Moe should be open-raising with around the top 20% of hands from the Lojack (which Ace-Jack offsuit is part of). The presence of the straddle incentivizes him to open-raise a little bit tighter, but not by a significant margin. And that is compensated by the presence of the Big Blind ante.
His raise size is too large. This is not something that I would advise you guys to do without a very good reason for it. This type of strategy would be optimal in a very loose game, where the players would be willing to put money into the pot with weak hands even against big sizings.
If you do want to use a strategy like this, then you should also tighten up the open-raising range a bit, as there is an increased amount of mathematical pressure on your bets. This stems from an asymmetrical increase in the risk taken compared to the expected reward.
Faced with this large raise, Mariano’s cold-call with Pocket Twos is too loose, but it’s not extremely bad. His range should consist of mostly 3-betting with a strong range made of Pocket Sixes or better, suited Ax, Ace-Queen offsuit or better, some suited connectors, and suited broadways.
Cold-calling with Pocket Twos 350bb deep is more troublesome than when playing 100bb deep because the reverse implied odds are more severe. This is because getting a set-under-set scenario will cost 3.5x more.
Flop Action
The flop comes Kh 4h 2s. The pot is $1,125.
Moe Money bets $1,500. Mariano raises to $5,000. Moe Money calls.
Simple Flop Analysis
The flop gives Mariano bottom set and Moe Money nothing but backdoor draws.
Moe Money should check with his Ace-Jack offsuit. He should look to play passively out-of-position when they are so deep stacked, especially with this mostly-missed hand.
Facing this overbet, both raising and calling with bottom set are fine plays from Mariano. He raises to build the pot as fast as possible, which makes a lot of sense.
Advanced Flop Analysis
Moe Money should be checking with close to or his entire range in this spot. The reasoning behind this strategy is that he has a ton of non-paired hands that have a good amount of equity, but are in jeopardy as he is out of position with a high stack-to-pot ratio (SPR).
If he starts betting with his strong hands, his checking range will remain unprotected, open to exploitation through very aggressive float betting.
That being said, the line his choice to overbet is interesting (albeit unorthodox). This kind of overbet will put an enormous amount of pressure on the vast majority of Mariano’s range.
In theory, Mariano should be continuing with more than half of his range against this bet due to having a range advantage, and also because he’s in position.
This means that he should be defending with hands as weak pocket pairs that have a backdoor flush draw. I have a hard time seeing that happening in real life. I expect most players to see the big overbet from Moe and simply fold a hand like 3h 3d or 7h 7d.
For this reason, I think Moe Money is taking the line that makes the most money for his specific holding. But it makes the rest of his range potentially exploitable. Now, there is a difference between being exploitable and getting exploited. The latter requires a few qualities on the opponent’s side:
- Knowledge of Moe Money’s strategy
- Understanding what the optimal strategy should look like for him
- Understanding how to exploit the imbalance
- Proper execution of the exploit
These are not trivial things to have happen together. It takes a very special person to do all those things.
Now, back to Mariano who has an extremely strong hand with his flopped set. I think both calling and raising are fine decisions in his shoes. He doesn’t have the nuts and there is a possibility that Moe Money is doing this with Pocket Kings or Pocket Fours (which would put him in a very rough spot).
Moe’s call facing Mariano’s raise is too loose. It will not be profitable in the long run as his equity is simply too low given the pot odds he’s getting and the fact that he is out-of-position. A better play would be to 3-bet bluff (still questionable though). That would really put Mariano in a very tough spot.
Turn Action
The turn comes the Qh, making the board Kh 4h 2s Qh. The pot is $11,125.
Moe bets $7,200. Mariano calls.
Simple Turn Analysis
The turn puts three hearts on the board and gives Moe Money the nut flush draw while Mariano still has a set.
Moe makes a good play to lead out with his nut flush draw. It puts Mariano in a really tough spot.
Mariano probably has to call, but folding isn’t out of the question. It might seem crazy to consider folding a set, but he is in rough shape against any value hand that Moe can have.
If he knows Moe has bluffs like Ah Jx in his range, though, Mariano has to call.
Advanced Turn Analysis
The [Qh] turn is potentially bad for Mariano’s range, depending on how he builds his preflop and flop strategies. He will either rarely or sometimes have flushes here, depending on how many suited hands he has preflop and how many flush draws he raises on the flop.
From a theoretical perspective, Moe makes a really smart play here by donk betting. He most likely has the nut advantage at this point in the hand — i.e. he’s more likely to have a flush.
That being said, the expected value (EV) of this bet is highly sensitive to how many flushes Mariano has in his range. If his flop-raising range is only sets, then this bet is very good. If he had flush draws as well, then it ventures into “bad play” territory.
Mariano has a pretty tough decision already here with his set. He can only make this call if he thinks Moe overbet, then called the flop raise with a hand such as the one he has here. Otherwise, Moe’s range is only flushes or sets, both of which destroy Mariano’s set of deuces.
River Action
The river comes the 5c, making the final board Kh 4h 2s Qh 5c. The pot is $25,525.
Moe shoves for $23,500.
Simple River Analysis
The river changes nothing.
Moe makes a great decision to bluff all-in. He knows Mariano can’t have the nuts since he holds the Ah in his hand.
Mariano can only call if he thinks Moe can arrive at this spot with a bluff. Absolutely brutal situation.
Before you read what happens, lock in your mind what you would do in this spot. I’ll ask you later to leave a comment with your answer.
Advanced River Analysis
The river 5c is a brick. No hands in either player’s range improve.
Moe has a great bluffing hand because it blocks the most likely value hand in Mariano’s range (the nut flush). Shoving here is a great option, especially given that there is enough money left in the stack (roughly a pot-sized shove) to put pressure even on a hand as good as a set.
Mariano is in a truly rough spot. He still has a pure bluff-catcher at this point (as in he doesn’t beat any value hands). In practice, he needs to figure out the likelihood that Moe is taking this line with a bluff relative to the chance that he’s taking this line with a value hand.
These kinds of spots are very player-dependent and sometimes dependent on the game dynamics. It’s impossible to give a great answer without studying a player for some time.
He’s getting about 2-to-1 on a call, which means he has to be good at least ~33% of the time for a call to profit.
If you want to approach it from an advanced game theory perspective, you’d need to figure out what your get-to-river range is and then defend according to the minimum defense frequency (MDF) formula.
In this case, Mariano would need to defend with 1- (23500 / (23500+ 25525)) = 0.52 -> 52% of his range. Without knowing what his range is, even with this approach, it is impossible to say what he should do with his set here.
Results
Mariano tank-folds. Moe Money wins the $25,525 pot.
Would you have called or folded on the river?
Let me know in the comments below.
Moe Money showed that he’s got ice running through his veins with this bluff. Never underestimate a player with experience. This guy is a savage!
Want more high stakes hand analysis? Check out The Craziest Poker Hand Of 2024 (Analysis).
That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned from it! As usual, if you have any questions or feedback feel free to leave a comment in the section down below.
If you really like high stakes hand analysis, especially from Doug Polk, check out “The Truth About High Stakes Poker” module in the Upswing Lab (members only).
