High Stakes Reg Pulls the Trigger on 443 Big Blind Bluff (DEX88 vs uwintakeit Analysis)
Have you been following our four-part article series that analyzes some of the craziest nosebleed stakes from early 2021?
(If you haven’t, check out parts one and two.)
This is part three, in which we will take a look at some super deep stack play that resulted in an enormous 890 big blind pot!
Let’s dive into the action!
Maybe His Screenname Jinxed It (uwintakeit)
The stakes are $50/$100 with a $20 ante. The effective stack is a whooping 443 big blinds!
Preflop
The hand starts innocently enough with an open-raise to $220 from DEX88 from the cutoff (let’s keep his hand hidden for now), followed by a cold-call by the button and the small blind.
The player in the big blind, high stakes pro uwintakeit, squeezes to $1,700 with A♣ 8♦. DEX88 responds with a 4-bet to $4,200.
The button and the small blind fold, and uwintakeit goes for a 5-bet bluff to $10,700. DEX calls.
Preflop Analysis
Note that these analysis sections will only cover uwintakeit’s plays because I don’t want to spoil DEX88’s hand just yet. When I reveal his hand at the end, I’ll also analyze each of his decisions.
Uwintakeit’s line is very divergent from the theoretically optimal one. In the big blind, his hand is probably strong enough to call the original open given the pot odds he’s getting. On top of that, you should not squeeze with many offsuit hands, especially when playing so deep.
When playing this deep, you want to have as much playability as possible and the potential to make the nuts often. You will not win an 890 big blind pot with just one pair or even two-pair very often. AQ-offsuit and KQ-offsuit are probably the only offsuit hands that make sense to squeeze in this spot.
When faced with a 4-bet, uwintakeit takes it even further by 5-betting, which is completely out of line. Yes, he has blockers to pocket aces, but that is too simplistic. There are many better alternatives out there (if you even want to have a 5-betting range out of position 450 big blinds deep).
He’d be much better off bluffing Ace-x hands with straight and flush potential such as A5-suited and A4-suited. Those hands have many more postflop possibilities.
Note: Want to know how to play every hand in every common preflop situation? Get instant access to extensive preflop charts and lessons (for cash games, heads-up and tournaments) when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Lock your seat now!
The Advanced Solver Ranges for cash games — one of five sets of preflop charts in the Upswing Lab.
Flop
The flop comes 7♠ 6♥ 2♠. The pot is $21,920.
Uwintakeit (A♣ 8♦) bets $9,600, DEX88 calls.
Flop Analysis
Once again forcing the action, uwintakeit bets around 45% of the pot with two overcards and three backdoor straight draws. The bet size he uses is indeed correct because he is targeting hands like AK/AQ to force them to fold. A smaller bet size would not achieve this.
Turn
The turn comes 9♦, making the board 7♠ 6♥ 2♠ 9♦. The pot is $41,120.
Uwintakeit (A♣ 8♦) shoves all-in for $23,960.
Turn Analysis
The 9♦ is one of the best cards in the deck for uwintakeit. He has to shove now because he has a decent amount of equity when called against the vast majority of DEX’s calling range.
If you add in…
- The fact that the sheer size of the pot might make DEX fold JJ-QQ some of the time,
- DEX may even fold KK sometimes (though I wouldn’t count on it); and
- He is blocking the only hand that we know for sure is always calling (AA)
These factors make it an easy shove for uwintakeit as played (if he can take the enormous variance that comes with such a play).
Results
Alright, ready to see what DEX88 was holding and the results of the hand?
If you put him on the right hand, let me know in the comments below.
Wrapping Up
What an amazing display of courage on the part of uwintakeit, putting it all on the line in a massive pot with nothing but an open-ended straight draw.
DEX showed patience with the way he played his hand, but was mostly lucky to have the aces when his opponent decided to blast off. Luck is a big factor in poker, but your long-term results will not be predicated on it as everyone gets their fair share of the fickle lady in the long run.
That’s all for this breakdown!
What Do You Think of uwintakeit’s Bluff?
Let me know in the comments below.
Ready for the final article in this series? Check out Bizarre Multiway Pot Between 3 High Stakes Regs ($28,350 Pot Analysis).
Til’ next time, good luck, grinders!
Note: Ready to join 6,000+ players currently upgrading their No Limit Hold’em skills? Crush your competition with the expert strategies you will learn inside the Upswing Lab training course. Learn more now!
