Don’t Do This in Poker! Doug Polk vs Mariano High Stakes Analysis

Even high stakes poker pros make mistakes.

Let’s dive into a high stakes hand played between Doug Polk and Mariano — featuring analysis from the legendary Uri Peleg.

And despite both Doug and Mariano being winning high stakes players, Uri believes both players made mistakes on the river.

Note: Want to master winning poker strategies without confusing solvers or complex math? Check out Uri Peleg’s new course “The Poker Blueprint” here. Get access now.

Watch the video version of this hand here.

Preflop Action

The blinds are $25/$50, but there are some crazy straddles up to $400.

Tito raises to $1,000 from the Cutoff with 9h 9c.

Tesla calls on the Button with Ad 6h.

Doug 3-bets to $5,000 from the Big Blind with Kh Qh.

Mariano 4-bets from the second straddle to $13,000 with Ks Kd.

Tito folds. Tesla folds. Doug calls.

The effective stack between Doug and Mariano is just over $200,000.

Preflop Analysis

Tito’s initial raise with Pocket Nines is standard. He should be playing a tighter range than normal with so many straddles, but Pocket Nines is easily strong enough to raise.

Tesla’s call with Ace-Six offsuit on the Button is far too loose. While this call isn’t the subject of this article, Uri notes that when you act after someone who is playing loose like this, you should squeeze a more linear range including high card hands and fewer bluffs like suited connectors.

Every other preflop action that occurs in this hand is well played. Doug should 3-bet with King-Queen suited (which he did). Mariano should 4-bet with Pocket Kings (which he did). Tito and Tesla should both be folding facing the 4-bet, and Doug makes a good call.

(Note: Folding versus a 4-bet with King-Queen suited might be a good play against tight players in your games. But against an aggressive pro like Mariano, it’s a good call.)

Flop Action

The flop comes Qc 6d 4h. The pot is $28,575.

Doug checks. Mariano bets $8,000. Doug calls.

Flop Analysis

Uri says that the first question to ask yourself after every flop is: Who’s range is this board good for?

Here is Uri’s answer to this question:

Generally speaking, a board with one high card and two disconnected low cards is very good for the preflop aggressor, which is Mariano. So, the way this is going to play is Doug is going to check everything and then Mariano is going to take a very aggressive betting lead.

That’s the big picture.

The next question Uri elects to ask is: What are the specific hands and what size of a pot do these hands want to play in this situation?

You can see Uri’s answer to that question here, which is guided by the fact that they are playing with about $200,000 behind (in a pot that is currently only $28,575):

How big of a pot do Mariano’s Pocket Kings want to play?

The answer here would be, generally speaking, very big. You’re only losing to Pocket Aces and Pocket Queens. Realistically, I don’t think Doug is going to have Pocket Sixes, Pocket Fours, or 64-suited here.

So, you’re ahead of enough where Kings, if it were the only hand in your range, would want to bet big on the flop and turn, then shove [on the river] on some runouts.

But not on every runout. Certainly, if the turn is an Ace, Queen, or even a Jack or a Ten, you might slow down. Jack and Ten turns slow you down because Doug can have Pocket Jacks and Pocket Tens, as well as some hands that improve to two pairs.

But at this point, Kings want to play a fairly big pot.

That’s how Mariano wants to play his hand. But what about Doug?

King-Queen suited for Doug, despite being top pair and a good kicker, doesn’t want to play a massive pot.

Given Mariano’s cold 4-bet, his range contains Pocket Aces, Pocket Kings, Pocket Queens, Pocket Jacks, Ace-King, Ace-Queen, etc. So, King-Queen won’t be doing that great when a lot of money goes in.

Certainly, Doug wants some money to go in. And he certainly wants money to go in if Mariano has something like Pocket Jacks.

But King-Queen for Doug is aiming for a very modestly sized pot. Say $20,000 more going in is good for King-Queen. But any money beyond that, you’re not very happy.

Back to the action. Mariano goes for a small bet of $8,000 into about $28,000. Here’s Uri’s analysis of that small bet:

The idea of the small bet is to disguise which hand you have from your opponent. Because like we said, he has his Aces, Kings, and Queens that want a big pot. But he also has his Jacks and Ace-King that want a small pot.

And when you have a big range advantage, which he does here, you get to sometimes make the small bet to start and then split your range up later in the head. So whenever you see someone make these small bets, that generally means they’re betting close to everything in their range.

Turn Action

The turn comes the Jh making the board Qc 6d 4h Jh. The pot is $44,575.

Doug checks. Mariano checks.

Turn Analysis

An action turn card gives Doug a flush draw to go with his top pair.

Here are Uri’s thoughts on how this turn should impact both players’ strategies:

This turn changes things for Mariano. It devalues his Kings and makes it so that his hand wants a smaller pot. That’s because he’s no longer getting called by Tens and Pocket Nines. Plus, he’s now losing to Jacks and Queen-Jack suited. So, the region of hands that he can get called by that he beats just got a lot narrower. But it’s still there.

I think Mariano should want around $30,000 extra to go into this pot. And he can do that by betting $30,000 now to check back the river. Or he can check back the turn and play the river.

When you’re in position, you always have lots of options. But knowing which pot size you’re aiming for is very important.

Meanwhile, Doug turned the flush draw, which is going to help him to continue. But unless he hits, it doesn’t change the pot size he wants with his hand.

River Action

The river comes the 5d making the final board Qc 6d 4h Jh 5d. The pot is $44,575.

Doug bets $15,000. Mariano snap-calls. Mariano wins the $74,575 pot.

The big mistake happened there. Did you catch it? I’ll let Uri explain.

River Analysis

The 5d might seem at first like a card that changes things, since now some straights and new two pairs are possible.

But Uri brings us back to preflop, where the presence of a loose player like Tesla makes it less likely that Doug and Mariano have suited connectors that have improved to straights or two pair in their ranges.

Now, back to Uri for his analysis of both Doug and Mariano’s river decisions:

I think, in practice, this river is kind of a brick. And if we’re thinking of ranges, Doug has top pair. We said before he wants a bit more money to go in. But look at the board and think of Mariano’s range. How can Doug get called by worse when he bets King-Queen?

Mariano, as we said, can have Aces, Kings, Queens, Jacks, Ace-King, Ace-Queen, and maybe King-Queen. So, it’s tough to get called by worse. I’d say, maybe Mariano has Ace-Jack suited, King-Queen suited, or Ace-King. And the rest of the time, you lose.

So, Doug’s hand, very surprisingly for the absolute hand strength, I think is not worth a bet. Or if you bet, it should be something tiny like $5,000. That’s to the best of my estimation regarding the ranges here. It’s just very, very tough for Mariano to have a worse hand.

Mariano ends up snap-calling the bet, which Uri believes was a mistake.

Here are his thoughts on this decision:

I think [Mariano’s decision to snap-call] is him not thinking through his options all the way through. Because like we said, Kings want around $30,000 extra in the pot. And which hands does Doug have in his range that beat his Kings? Queen-Jack suited, Pocket Jacks, Pocket Queens, maybe Pocket Aces.

But which of those hands would have played like this? A hand like Queen-Jack suited or Pocket Jacks might try to go for a lot more than $15,000 on the river. And if that’s true, then given what happened, Mariano now has the best hand with Kings and should raise for value.

Now, I think his hand is worth more. But you always risk running into traps when you re-open the action. So, I wouldn’t mind if he thought about it and decided to just call. But I feel like not thinking about it is generally an error. 

Final Advice from Uri

Uri’s final advice to everyone reading:

Whenever you’re in a hand, it’s very, very important to think of all the options and not let your opponent get away with determining the pot size.

That’s it for this one. Check back next Friday for another article/video featuring Uri’s expert analysis. There will be 4 of these in total, all leading up to the late September launch of The Poker Blueprint.

Good luck at the tables this week!

Note: Want to discover how to make the right play no matter the hand? Uri Peleg’s brand-new course “The Poker Blueprint” allows you to do just that. Get access now.