Flopped Quads vs LLinusLLove ($194,718 Pot Analysis)
Every poker player knows what it feels like to run bad.
But running bad in a cash game with almost $100,000 effective stacks? That’s an entirely new level of pain.
Today we’re going to analyze an online hand played between two crushers, Linus Loeliger (LLinusLLove) and Ignacio Moron (Nacho124441), with $500/$1,000 blinds with a $200 ante.
Without any further ado, let’s dive into the action!
Preflop Action
Ignacio raises from the Hijack with to $2,100. Titophe 3-bets to $3,200 from the Small Blind with an unknown hand. Linus cold 4-bets with to $10,000 from the Big Blind. Ignacio calls. Titophe folds.
Preflop Analysis
Ignacio makes the correct raise with Pocket Threes from the Hijack. The ante structure incentives him to raise roughly the top 30% of hands from this position, which Pocket Threes is comfortably part of.
Titophe makes a massive mistake by 3-betting to the minimum from the Small Blind. He should be raising to roughly 4x the size of the initial raise. He is simply losing money by incorporating this small size into his strategy (unless it was a mis-click).
Given Titophe’s 3-bet size, Linus should have both a cold-calling range and a cold 4-betting range. This is because he is getting great pot odds.
The easiest way to play, would be to create a cold-4-betting range that has all the strongest hands (like his Ace-Queen offsuit) and some medium-strength hands, building a linear range that will put great pressure on both players. His cold-4-bet size is good, as it puts enough pressure on both players’ ranges due to the pot odds offered.
Given the Linus’ size, Ignacio should be looking to defend with roughly 40-45% of his range, which will be made out of:
- Pocket Pairs (like his threes)
- Suited Connectors
- Ace-Queen Offsuit
- Suited Broadways
- Ace-Four Suited
- Ace-Five Suited
Calling with Pocket Jacks, Pocket Queens, Pocket Kings, and Ace-King should also be done at some frequency, in theory. In practice, however, it should only be done if Linus is cold-4-betting a very tight range.
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The Advanced Solver Ranges for cash games — one of six sets of preflop charts in the Upswing Lab.
Flop Action
The flop comes . The pot is $24,400.
Linus bets $6,000. Ignacio calls.
Flop Analysis
An action flop is an under-statement: Linus flops top pair good kicker but he’s essentially drawing dead as Ignacio makes quads.
On this type of flop, Linus has a huge range and nut advantage, because it is very hard for Ignacio to have a or strong in his hand. When this is the case, a small size, very high-frequency c-bet is the way to go, which is what he does.
This strategy will put a lot of pressure on both pocket pairs without a diamond and the double broadway hands with backdoor draws (meaning that their expected value is dropped to ~0).
Ignacio has no reason to raise here with quads. His hand is invulnerable and also because the stack-to-pot ratio (SPR) is very small, meaning that he can get the entire stack into the pot easily.
Turn Action
The turn comes the , making the board . The pot is $36,400 .
Linus bets $25,000. Ignacio calls.
Turn Analysis
A brick turn, as many of them would be.
After c-betting almost if not his entire range on the flop, Linus should be looking to slow down and size down on the turn for the most part. He should do so because he has gotten to this point in the game tree with his entire range, while Ignacio’s range has been filtered heavily due to him facing the c-bet on the flop.
That being said, Linus can also play a large bet-only strategy, since there are a few hands that would like to bet big for value, hands such as Ace-King and his Ace-Queen. In theory, if he opts for the large bet strategy, then he would need to balance his range out by betting with all of his flush draws and some hands such as King-Queen offsuit.
When faced with this bet, Ignacio has a very simple decision with his exact hand: call. There is absolutely no incentive to raise here for value since Linus is essentially always drawing dead against his quads. That being said, should he have any other pocket pair, he would be in a world of pain.
River Action
The river comes the , making the final board . The pot is $86,400.
Linus bets all-in for $54,159 effective. Ignacio calls and shows Linus the bad news, scooping a massive $194,718 pot.
River Analysis
All flush draws miss, which means that the river is pretty much a brick. Only flush draws that include the improve.
In theory, Linus should shove. But the expected value between that and check-calling is likely close since he isn’t blocking any missed flush draws from Ignacio’s range.
Ignacio has the easiest decision that a poker player can ever make, calling an all-in bet with the (effective) nuts. From a range perspective, he should be calling, in theory, with all his hands and fold the rest.
What do you think of Linus’ play in this hand?
Let me know in the comments below.
Coolers happen at all levels, from play money games to $100,000 buy-in cash games. The more money on the line, the stronger the mindset of the player must be. Some players are technically proficient enough to play in those games, but simply lack the mental fortitude to deal with the swings.
That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned from it! As usual, if you have any questions or feedback feel free to leave a comment in the section down below.
Till’ next time, good luck, grinders!
