Money Bubble Tactics: Maximize Your Edge as the Pressure Builds

Make no mistake: pre-money play is a lot more dynamic than simply running everyone over as the big stack or running for cover when you’re short.

The continual redistribution of chips as players win and lose pots, combined with the shrinking field and looming bubble, makes the stages leading up to the in-the-money (ITM) phase some of the most dynamic, interesting, and ROI-defining in tournaments.

While at a final table, you’ll be making decisions around the lion’s share of the prize pool, but busting near the money too often eats away at your deep-run profits and kills your ROI.

This is the second part of a comprehensive dive into pre-money play (you can read part 1 here).

Today, we’re getting a little closer to the bubble of a 1,000-runner tournament with 125 paid.

To provide some contrast and help clarify your adjustments, I’m using Holdem Resources Calculator (HRC) sims for 175 players left (50 eliminations from ITM) and 150 players left (25 eliminations from ITM).

Let’s dive deep into strategy for this critical stage of a tournament.

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Short Stack Strategy

I’m going to drop a few charts from my HRC research, then summarize the key takeaways below them.

Just take a quick glance at the charts, maybe make a mental note of the differences, then move onto my explanations. You can always scroll back up to reference the charts as needed.

From the Cutoff with 11bb, the RFI strategy is split between min-opening and open-shoving:

• Red: Min-raise.
• Purple: Open shove (all-in).

The Cutoff opens 31.6% of hands in this spot.

From the Cutoff with 11bb, the RFI strategy is split between min-opening and open-shoving:

• Red: Min-raise.
• Purple: Open shove (all-in).

The Cutoff opens 30.4% of hands in this spot.

From the Cutoff with 11bb, the RFI strategy is split between min-opening and open-shoving:

• Red: Min-raise.
• Purple: Open shove (all-in).

The Cutoff opens 27.5% of hands in this spot.

At 100 players left from the money, the Cutoff plays a 31.6% range. At 50 left, it’s 30.4%. At 25 left, it shrinks to 27.5%. The nearing of the bubble creates a tapering effect on the short stack’s range, and the closer you get, the sharper the contraction becomes.

Notice how the rate of shrinkage steepens. From 100 left to 50 left, the Cutoff’s range contracts by just 1.2%. But from 50 left to 25 left, it shrinks by 2.8%. The proximity of the money produces meaningful RFI adjustments.

Importantly, it’s not the min-raise percentage that’s driving this shift. The min-open frequency only drops by 0.2% from 100 to 25 left. Rather, it’s the all-ins that see a significant decline. This highlights the increasing importance of survival as a short stack near the bubble.

Paying attention to the fringe of your range becomes critical here. Take Qx Tx offsuit, for example.

• With 100 left from the money, this combo shoves 34% of the time.
• With 50 left, it drops to 10%.
• With 25 left, just 6%.

It’s easy to fall into the trap of playing a static “bubble” range when you’re short-stacked. But even with limited chips, nuance and finesse are required.

It’s crucial to understand what the fringe of your range is actually worth. With 25 players left before the money, this combo is worth just $0.05 in dollar expected value ($EV), whether you min-raise or shove. Remember, this is a $215 tournament where the min-cash is about 1.5x the buy-in. With 50 players left, the same hand is worth about $1.82.

So while these are high-frequency RFIs, they don’t add much to your bottom line.

Factors like your opponents calling too wide or too tight, your skill edge at the table, and even where this tournament’s buy-in ranks in your overall schedule should all influence how you proceed.

• How Your Opponents Play: If your opponents are calling too wide, the $EV of your fringe shoves will drop, often turning into losing plays. Conversely, if they’re calling too tight, you should ramp up your aggression. It’s important to recognize whether optimal play is overperforming or underperforming in practice and adjust your strategy accordingly.
• Your Skill Edge Vs. Your Table: Factoring in future gameplay when dealt a bottom-of-range open shove will help you decide whether to strictly follow the ICM outputs. Take the Qx Tx offsuit example: you make just $0.05 by open-jamming, a negligible amount relative to the $215 buy-in. Can you outperform that $0.05 by waiting for a better spot? Gambling tighter might be the better play. On the other hand, if you’re at a skill disadvantage, it’s usually best to take any available +$EV spot as the short stack and hope to either get it through or win when called.
• Your Buy-in Range: Players with a wider buy-in range may want to weigh the $EV of a shove more carefully and tighten up. In this $215 example, if it’s near the top of your buy-in range, you might choose to shave the bottom off your open-shoving range to give yourself a better shot at min-cashing. An extreme example: imagine an online midstakes grinder who satellites into the WSOP Main Event and makes Day 4. In that spot, you might willingly sacrifice some theoretical EV in exchange for a higher chance at locking up a five-figure payout.

Mid Stacks

It’s natural to assume that ICM pressure causes ranges to tighten across all stack sizes. However, there are situations where the opposite happens.

From UTG1 with 33bb, the RFI strategy opens 18.9% of hands.

From UTG1 with 33bb, the RFI strategy opens 19.9% of hands.

From UTG1 with 33bb, the RFI strategy opens 21.4% of hands.

In the HRC outputs for the UTG1 player, the ranges expand as the money approaches.

• 100 from the money: 18.9% open.
• 50 from the money: 19.9% open.
• 25 from the money: 21.4% open — slightly wider than chipEV.

At first glance, this might seem to contradict the ICM model, where you would expect ranges to tighten, not widen. However, this is a mischaracterization of how ICM pressure actually works. While it’s true that ICM often leads to tighter overall play, it would be more accurate to say that ICM determines who you should be playing against most often, not simply that you should tighten across the board.

In the configuration for these sims, the UTG1 player is only at risk of busting versus the Small Blind.

• UTG: 50bb
• UTG1 (EP): 33bb
• MP: 18bb
• HJ: 25bb
• CO: 11bb
• BU: 29bb
• SB: 39bb
• BB: 19.5bb

Stack configuration used for the earlier sims.

After the UTG player folds, the UTG1 player’s highest bubble factor is against the Small Blind.

Notice in the bubble factors above that the highest risk premiums for the UTG1 player are against the UTG and Small Blind, both at 6.8%. When the UTG player folds and UTG1 opens, the opponent they least want to play against is the Small Blind, since they are covered by them, increasing the risk of busting out.

However, in every other possible confrontation, the bubble factors and risk premiums of the opponents against UTG1 are greater than UTG1’s are against them. The opponents are the ones at risk when playing a pot versus UTG1, not the other way around. This dynamic strengthens the case for UTG1 to open wider.

The most important factors in shaping UTG1’s opening range are the Button and Big Blind stacks, since they are the players most likely to contest the pot. In this case, UTG1 covers both.

UTG1 covers the Button and the Big Blind — the two players they will be tangling with most often. They also cover everyone else at the table except the Small Blind, who they will have position on. These conditions are what cause UTG1’s RFI range to widen under ICM pressure, rather than contract.

For clarity, take a look at the Big Blind’s response to a UTG1 open, first with 100 players left before the money, then with 25, shown below.

UTG1 opens 18.9% of hands.

The Big Blind’s combined defending range is 59.4%, folding the remaining 40.6%.

UTG1 opens 21.4% of hands.

The Big Blind’s combined defending range is 41.8%, folding the remaining 58.2%.

Since the Big Blind is covered and at risk of busting against the UTG1 opener, they are forced to defend very tightly.

• In the 100-left sim, the Big Blind is already folding 40.6% of hands.
• With 25 left before the money, that number jumps to 58.2%.

In a chipEV environment, this level of folding would be considered extreme. At these stack depths, the Big Blind would typically only fold around 25% of hands.

Folding this much in the Big Blind would result in a losing bb/100 win rate, even if you played like a top-tier player from every other position. Because the Big Blind is forced to defend so tightly, the UTG1 player gains additional incentive to widen their RFI range.

To further illustrate, take a look at the HRC sim below, where the stacks have been rearranged.

• UTG: 111bb
• UTG1 (EP): 33bb
• MP: 18bb
• HJ: 25bb
• CO: 19.5bb
• BU: 50bb
• SB: 29bb
• BB: 39bb

Stack configuration used for the following sim.

UTG1 opens 19.9% of hands.

Once again, the UTG1 range has contracted to less than chipEV. The driving force behind these adjustments is the Button and Big Blind, who now cover the UTG1 player. When UTG1 opens, the Big Blind folds 44% of the time, more than in the 100-left sim (40.6%), but significantly less than in the 25-left sim (58.2%).

Contrasting this stack setup against the earlier one highlights just how dynamic the ICM model truly is.

When thinking about ICM, think about who you do and do not want to play against.

The Big Stack

In this section, I’ll compare the two 150-remaining (25 left to the money) sims with their different stack setups.

By now, it should be clear: if you are not at risk of busting while others are, you get to play more hands. As the money approaches, the big stack at the table will naturally see an RFI increase from all positions.

UTG opens 21.9% of hands.

In the HRC output above, UTG opens a 21.9% range. This is notably wide, considering that in chipEV:

• At 25bb effective, UTG would open around 18%.
• At 50bb effective, UTG would open around 17%.

The fact that the earliest position can widen its range by nearly 18% highlights just how much ICM pressure impacts the shorter stacks.

As noted in the previous article of this series, preference is given to combos that block opponents’ 3-bets, particularly Ax and Kx hands.

This pattern remains resilient even as the RFI range expands. The additional hands aren’t random pocket pairs or suited connectors; they are primarily suited Kx, Ax 5x offsuit, and offsuit broadways. It’s important to remember that as preflop ranges shift, so must your postflop strategy. A common mistake is to continue using GTO postflop lines that were developed for chipEV ranges, even when ICM pressure is in play.

The Button opens 55.5% of hands.

On the Button, the big stack opens over half the deck. This isn’t unusual — at 40bb effective in chipEV, the Button opens around 52%, and at 50bb effective, around 54%. What is unusual is how resilient this percentage remains in an asymmetric setup. In this table configuration, the Small Blind has 29bb, and the Big Blind has 39bb.

Again, covering the players to act means they are never at risk, their opponents are, allowing them to open even more aggressively than standard chipEV strategy would suggest.

That said, being the covering stack on the Button with 25 players left before the money is not a license to raise 80% of your hands.

55.5% is wide, but it’s still an “honest” range.

However, it’s important to understand that opening wider than equilibrium is a lesser mistake than defending wider. As an extreme example:

• If the Button opens 9x4x offsuit, they lose $8.09.
• If the Big Blind defends it, they lose $16.70.

Opening and betting mistakes are far less costly than calling mistakes, especially under ICM pressure.

Conclusion

In this article, I’ve covered the strategic adjustments for what is traditionally considered the soft bubble stage in tournaments. At this point, risk premiums are high enough that RFI percentages become much more dynamic, moving up or down depending on your stack size and table configuration.

Key Takeaways:

• Short stacks tighten up, playing for the min-cash. Pay close attention to your opponents’ tendencies — open-shoving equilibrium ranges against players who call too wide will torch money.
• When the big stack folds, the next stack with the lowest risk of busting (the one covering others) effectively becomes the new chip leader. As a result, opens widen. Make sure not to play too tight!
• With the money bubble looming, the big stack gets to ramp up aggression from all positions, but still within respectable ranges. Be careful not to play too loose.
• Mistakes around ICM pressure: It’s much worse to defend too wide than it is to open too wide.

If you enjoyed this article, keep an eye out for part 3 of my bubble series. And check this out in the meantime: This Greedy Value Bet Strategy Will Help You Win More Tournaments.

Note: Want to navigate every stage of a tournament like a pro, from the first hand to the last?

Get $200 off the ultimate tournament masterclass with coupon code BUBBLE200. Expires Sunday at midnight.

This advanced tournament course from two super high rollers will help you run deeper and win more tournaments.

Make sure you use that BUBBLE200 code to save $200 before this Sunday (May 4th) at midnight.