PR0DIGY vs Riggedeck: A $35,000 Hand Breakdown from the Cash Game World Championship

As we steam ahead with the 2025 Cash Game World Championship (CGWC), I am going to break down a hand from the first installment of the event, which ran from early December 2024 to mid-January 2025.

The stars of the show are two of the best: PR0DIGY (Owen Messere), who ended up winning the whole thing by a huge margin, and Riggedeck, the runner-up.

The game is No Limit Hold’em, the blinds are $50/$100, the stacks are around $17,000 deep, and they will be swapping places!

Strap in, because this one is for the history books. Was it a genius play at the wrong moment, or a complete punt? Keep reading to find out.

Preflop Action

Riggedeck opens the action with a raise to $250 from the Button holding As Qd. PR0DIGY defends the Small Blind with Jd Td by 3-betting to $1,300. Riggedeck calls.

Simple Analysis

When stacks are deeper (170bb instead of 100bb), the Button should open slightly more hands because having more chips behind increases the value of playable, well-positioned hands. The raise size stays small (around 2.5bb) to keep pressure on the Big Blind’s wide range.

In response, the Small Blind should 3-bet a tighter, more polarized range, favoring suited hands over offsuit hands. He should also develop a significant calling range due to the lack of rake and because deeper stacks offer more implied odds, particularly for pocket pairs and suited hands.

Facing that 3-bet, the Button still folds most of the time but can profitably call more suited and speculative hands than at normal stack depths.

Both Riggedeck and PR0DIGY played their hands correctly up to this point.

Preflop Analysis

With 170bb effective between himself and PR0DIGY, Riggedeck should be expanding his open-raising range slightly, from the top 44% (which is GTO-approved at 100bb deep with rake) to around the top 48% of hands.

This happens because, as the player with the range advantage, nut advantage, and positional advantage, he can both extract more value and create more 0EV situations for the opponent. Deeper stacks allow him to increase the mathematical pressure exerted on PR0DIGY’s stack.

Here’s how this range should look according to a sim I created for this precise scenario:

A 2.5bb raise size is appropriate in this spot because it creates a difficult situation for the Big Blind, putting a large portion of his range into close-EV decisions. Anything between 2bb and 3bb will generate virtually the same amount of expected value. Making the raise too large makes the Big Blind’s life easier, as he no longer has to defend with a wide range of hands, resulting in stronger holdings postflop and simpler play overall.

Because PR0DIGY is deeper and the game is rake-less, he should start developing a calling range on top of the “standard” 3-betting one. The most widespread rake rule is the “no flop, no drop” rule, which states that no rake is taken if no flop is dealt. This incentivizes 3-betting over calling in typical games, as 3-betting can avoid the 5% rake penalty while calling cannot.

When that “tax” is removed from the EV equation of calling (as it is here in the rake-less CGWC) we suddenly become more interested in calling preflop.

Calling starts to become attractive for hands such as low pocket pairs when the potential payout is so much higher when you hit a set (or, why not, quads). The same goes for hands like:

• AJo, ATo, KJo, KTo,
• low Kx suited,
• Q7s, J8s, T8s, 97s
• other suited connectors

Because you don’t want your calling range to be too capped with a player left to act who can squeeze you out of the pot, you will also start including traps in your calling range.

The 3-betting range will therefore shrink from the optimal 14% frequency at 100bb deep to around 10% in this configuration.

As far as sizing goes, anything from 10bb to 13bb works well, putting enough of the Button’s range in a tough spot by giving him very close odds. An argument can be made for using bigger sizings when playing deeper stacks, which naturally favor the Button. By raising larger, you reduce the stack-to-pot ratio and therefore the postflop maneuverability that the Button enjoys.

Here’s an approximation of how PR0DIGY’s defense should look. Keep in mind this sim was created using an 11bb 3-bet size. When he uses a 12.5bb size, the optimal strategy becomes slightly more polarized, containing a bit fewer pocket pairs and slightly more junk. The differences, however, are small:

Facing this 3-bet, Riggedeck should defend fairly wide, folding roughly 60% of the time. Even though that fold frequency is close to what we’d use at 100bb, it now covers more combos simply because the original open-raise range was looser. That’s why hands like K7s, T7s, 86s, 75s, 64s, and 53s start showing up as straightforward, profitable calls.

Another shift from the 100bb strategy is how often we call with hands that normally feel great about stacking off, such as AKo, QQ, JJ, and TT. With deeper stacks, these hands don’t love facing a re-raise from the Small Blind. It’s one thing to get jammed on with 100bb and a very different thing when you’re sitting on 170.

There’s also a strategic protection element here: calling more with these strong-but-not-invincible hands helps shield the rest of the calling range from the added pressure the Small Blind can apply with deeper stacks and greater leverage. By keeping the Button’s range at least partially uncapped, we make it less appealing for the Small Blind to attack relentlessly and punish the weaker tiers.

So far, no surprises here; both players played their hands correctly.

Flop Action

The flop comes Ah Js 7s, and the pot is $2,700.

PR0DIGY (Jd Td) bets $2,700. Riggedeck (As Qd) calls.

Simple Analysis

The solver is mainly betting small in this spot and sometimes bets full pot, but that doesn’t mean you should copy that with a randomizer.

The takeaway is simply this: pot-betting can work with certain hands, even if checking or betting small is also fine.

PR0DIGY’s pot bet isn’t wrong. Strong hands like AJ, AK, or 77 want to push for big value and deny equity, and the strategy needs a few bluff-ish hands mixed in so it isn’t too easy to play against.

That’s where hands like Jd Td come in. It’s not a pure bluff (Jd Td already has some equity) but betting big can sometimes fold out slightly better hands while still getting called by plenty of worse ones. It’s on the marginal side, but acceptable.

On the other side, Riggedeck should defend about half of his range versus this pot-sized bet. As Qd is easily strong enough for that, as it sits well within the top part of his holdings, so it should always continue rather than fold.

Let’s see how the men play the turn.

Flop Analysis

On this type of flop, PR0DIGY will have an enormous range and nut advantage due to completely dominating the top pair+ region while having few missed hands.

In these range-vs.-range dynamics, especially with low stack-to-pot ratios, the optimal strategy is to fire block bets very frequently. Given the board texture is double broadway with an Ace top pair, and that there are flush draws and straight draws possible, it creates a dynamic where some hands actually want to go a different route sometimes and reduce the SPR greatly going to the turn, minimizing the expected value of the draws by capitalizing on their very high equity.

That, however, is the poker equivalent of what the chess world understands as a “sideline.”

Since there is such a thing as a sideline, it logically requires the existence of a “mainline.”

In chess, a mainline is considered the line of action that is most frequently used by chess engines and/or top-level professionals, as it is the most logically sound. A sideline is considered an insignificantly different line (usually lower, but not always) in value compared to the mainline, as calculated by a chess solver.

While not mapping perfectly to poker strategy development, the same concept can be applied to poker strategy as well.

Take a look at this simulation I’ve done for this spot, where I gave the solver three betting options: check (bet 0), 30% pot bet, and 100% pot bet:

We can see that each hand class is mixing between at least two options, to varying degrees. This is because the solver has calculated that the expected value of the lines it’s mixing between is essentially the same against the opponent’s strategies.

That said, for each hand class, there is a “preferred” line; what we could call the “mainline.” In the case of Jd Td, which PR0DIGY happened to hold in this spot, the mainline is to bet 30% pot. This hand’s sidelines are checking and betting 100% pot:

We can see that the solver will indeed take the 100% pot-bet sideline around 3% of the time.

Now, does this mean you should use an RNG, look to hit the 3% mark, and start betting pot; or that PR0DIGY was using an RNG and did exactly that? Absolutely NOT.

This does, however, have informative value. It means there is a way to play this hand such that, even against the solver’s perfect defensive strategy, it performs just as well as checking or betting 30% pot.

I’m not going to go deeper into this subject right now, as it is beyond the scope of the article. I will, however, continue to explain how and why this sideline strategy is functional.

You have top-equity hands such as:

• 77
• AJ
• AK

These hands can extract a ton of value from the Button’s range and really do not benefit from letting him off the hook easily. They would rather put two large bets in before the river so the expected value of the draws is minimized, sometimes even to 0.

These hands will need some balancing; otherwise, the strategy becomes easily exploitable via overfolding. This is where hand selection comes in. You have to ask yourself:

Which hands are best suited as bluffs when betting 100% pot?

The answer is: hands that have a good amount of equity when called, and that also have blockers to the opponent’s calling (and raising) range.

Then comes the question of board coverage, and this is where the solver shines, as it finds the precise amount of each bluff candidate necessary to perfectly fulfill the bluff requirement and make the opponent maximally indifferent across the game tree.

These will include draws, but also low pairs that function as merge-bets.

Practical definition: A merge-bet is a bet that folds out the same-strength or better hands while simultaneously getting called by a good deal of weaker hands.

A hand like Jd Td can be used as a merge-bet in this scenario, as the optimal defense for the Button when faced with the 100% pot c-bet is to fold some of his QJs and JTs combos while simultaneously calling with weaker hands such as KQ, KTs, T9s, 7x, flush draws, etc.

It is, however, very marginal, as it’s only folding out a tiny number of better hands. This is why the solver is much more bullish about betting 100% pot with a hand like 7d 6d:

This is because this hand still gets the same number of weaker hands to call while folding out far more better hands (K7s, T7s, 97s, 87s).

Nonetheless, it’s an acceptable line from PR0DIGY.

When faced with such a bet, Riggedeck should look to defend at roughly the frequency described by the minimum defense frequency formula, which means defending around 50% of his range.

As Qd sits in roughly the top 10% of his holdings and should therefore always defend here to prevent his opponent from getting away with overbluffing.

Turn Action

The turn is the 2d, making the board Ah Js 7s 2d. The pot is $8,100.

PR0DIGY (Jd Td) bets $5,300, and Riggedeck (As Qd) calls.

Simple Analysis

This is the simple street in this hand.

Turn Analysis

The turn 2d is a brick. It doesn’t improve either player’s range in any meaningful way.

PR0DIGY should continue with a polarized betting range, giving up some of his bluffs so as not to overbluff.

This is where he makes a crucial mistake by betting with Jd Td, at least from a theoretical perspective. He miscalculates his hand’s attributes. While it’s true that he will continue folding out a few better hands on the turn (think KJs, QJs, even a tiny bit of Axs), he isn’t getting called by enough worse hands to make up for the number of better hands that continue.

This is a polarization error. This hand sits firmly in a showdown-value region, meaning that checking and looking to see the showdown for free is its preferred line.

It is much better to continue merge-betting with a hand like 87s or 76s in this spot because these hands have much higher bluff efficiency (i.e., how many better hands they fold) while getting called by the same amount of weaker hands as Jd Td.

Riggedeck has a very easy call with his hand, once again sitting in the top 15–20% of his range. Folding here would be a massive mistake that would make PR0DIGY’s bluff print money.

River Action

The river comes the 8d, making the board Ah Js 7s 2d 8d. The pot is $18,800.

PR0DIGY shoves for $7,900, Riggedeck calls, and scoops the $34,620 pot.

Simple Analysis

The river 8d doesn’t change much, and Jd Td is strong enough to simply check and hope to win. Shoving is unnecessary.

Since the shove is only 40% of the pot, Riggedeck should call very often. As Qd is one of his best hands here, so folding would be a big mistake and would let PR0DIGY bluff too profitably.

River Analysis

The river 8d is an above-average one for PR0DIGY’s range. This is because his turn merge-bet with 87s improves to two pair, while his T9s also improves to a straight.

PR0DIGY makes yet another, bigger theoretical blunder in this spot. He again miscalculates the attributes of his hand, likely overestimating the blocker impact of reducing the number of AJ, JJ, and ATs combos in the Button’s range while underestimating the EV of checking. His hand has legitimate showdown value here, capable of winning against holdings such as KsTs, Ks8s, Qs8s, Ts8s, and 9s8s.

When the shove is for such a small amount (roughly 40% of the pot), Riggedeck is supposed to defend with the vast majority of his range. This means almost all of his top pairs will call to prevent PR0DIGY from profiting with bluffs.

As Qd is still at the very top of his range, so folding would be a big mistake, one that would make PR0DIGY’s shove enormously profitable.

Final Thoughts

Now, was PR0DIGY out of line in this spot? 100%, no doubt about it. Was this a punt? Most likely. Is it possible that he had a read on Riggedeck folding too often? Potentially: everybody has leaks.

Here’s one way to assess this hand: if Riggedeck had called the shove with A4s, this hand would be a complete punt. But he didn’t (he had the top of his range) so we can’t confidently say whether this play is actually winning money or not. Since it would take a major deviation from Riggedeck to make this shove profitable, it is most likely the case that it was just a punt.

This is good news, guys! You can punt and still crush the Cash Game World Championship. Poker isn’t solved, no matter what the doomers say.

That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned from it! As usual, if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to leave a comment in the section down below.

Till next time, good luck, grinders!

To read about another exhilarating hand played at the CGWC, read: LLinusLLove vs Kevin Paqué in a CGWC High-Stakes Showdown.