Epic Showdown at the Cash Game World Championship (Linus vs. PR0DIGY)

Let’s dive into a hand from the Cash Game World Championship, which took place on Coin Poker over the past couple of months.

This one features the winner of the championship (by a huge margin), Owen “PR0DIGY” Messere, and the third-place finisher, Linus “LLinusLL0ve” Loeliger.

The game is No Limit Hold’Em, the blinds are $50/$100, and both players start the hand around 100bb deep effective.

Without any further ado, let’s jump right into it!

Note: PR0DIGY recently joined coach Tim Jenkins in the Upswing Lab to analyze hands from the Cash Game World Championship. 

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Preflop Action

Owen opens up the action with a raise of $300 from the Small Blind with QdTc. Linus defends the Big Blind with AcTd by calling.

Simple Preflop Analysis

QxTx offsuit is a clear raise in a blind-vs-blind scenario.

AxTx offsuit should always just call against the raise. It is too weak to re-raise for value and too strong to raise as a bluff.

Advanced Preflop Analysis

Owen can play either a mixed strategy (with limps and open-raises) or a pure-raise strategy. Both strategies have roughly the same expected value (EV), with a tiny edge for the mixed one at equilibrium, particularly in the zero-rake environment in which the championship was played.

Historically, Owen tends to play a pure-raise strategy. While you might give up a shred of EV at equilibrium, sometimes (even at the highest levels!) the simplest approach is the best.

From a macro perspective, Linus should be 3-betting with a polarized range made out of strong pocket pairs (88+), suited connectors, strong suited broadways, AQo+, a little bit of AJo and KQo — representing the value region — and a mix of trashy hands such as mid-low Ax offsuit, mid-low Kx offsuit, same for Qx, Jx, Tx, then topping that off with some suited trash such as J7s, J6s, etc.

Flop Action

The flop comes KcQhJc and the pot is $600.

Owen (QdTc) bets $150. Linus (AcTd) raises to $1,050, Owen re-raises to $2,832 and Linus calls.

Simple Flop Analysis

Owen can either c-bet small or check-call. Both options are fine given how small the block-bet size is and how invulnerable his hand is.

Linus should mostly be raising with his nutted hand.

Faced with this raise, Owen should call with QT as it is a great bluff-catcher. That being said, his hand has decent qualities for 3-betting (blocking value hands and having good equity when called). Most likely 3-betting here is a small mistake due to not making any better hands fold.

Faced with the 3-bet, Linus can go either way, calling or 4-betting small. The goal is to get stacks in, so he must consider which way is most likely to induce more mistakes from Owen.

Advanced Flop Analysis

Owen has a massive range and nut advantage on this flop, thanks to his unique sets and a significantly higher density of two-pairs and straights. This happens because Linus should be 3-betting with JJ-KK preflop, along with ATs, QJs, and T9s, at a frequency.

Linus also must defend with a lot of trashy hands, many more relative to Owen’s range. That is due to the great pot odds that he’s getting, coupled with his positional advantage.

That being said, despite his significant range advantage, Owen should play a mixed c-betting strategy on this flop because he has many invulnerable made hands via Qx and Jx.

A block bet is optimal because it pressures Linus’ extensive trash region of hands (think of hands such as 87o, 76o, 65o, 75s, 64s, etc.)

QxTx offsuit is a fine c-bet for thin value. In fact, any Qx can c-bet for block size like this for thin value.

Against this block-bet, Linus should be constructing a wide raising strategy comprised of mostly straights for value (with two-pairs slow playing at a high frequency) and then some strong draws like open-enders (Tx), flush draws, and combo-draws.

Faced with this raise, Owen should create a 3-betting strategy with straights and sets as his value hands and some strong draws (combo draws or open-ender + backdoor flush draw) as his bluffs.

QxTx offsuit is a hand that has decent properties for 3-betting in theory. It blocks the AT, T9, KQ, and QJ, has good equity to improve, and is ahead of Ax combo draws and backdoor flush draws

That being said, in solver-land, some top pair hands (like Kh5h and Kh4h) raise-fold in Linus’ shoes. However, Linus is unlikely to raise with them, especially not for the large polarized size he chose here. This means that 3-betting with QT becomes a polarization error, as Owen would only be folding out worse hands.

Against the 3-bet, Linus can either 4-bet or flat. In practice, it’s hard to say which option is better, so he’ll likely either randomize or decide based on his knowledge of Owen’s tendencies, his range, and the overall situation. If Linus feels like Owen would try to get creative on later streets, like over-bluffing, then calling is fine.

SPOILER ALERT: Getting creative is exactly what Owen does next.

Turn Action

The turn comes the 2d, making the board KcQhJc2d. The pot is $6,264.

Owen (QdTc) bets $2,818, Linus (AcTd) calls.

Simple Turn Analysis

Owen has a decent hand to either barrel small (for equity realization) or to check-call, given the amount of equity that he has.

When faced with this bet, Linus should always call with the AcTx variation of the straight. That is because he’s blocking Owen’s Ax combo draws, meaning there are fewer hands to get value from by shoving.

Advanced Turn Analysis

The 2d is a complete brick, as no hands change their value from the flop. That said, Linus’ range is very strong at this point, containing more straights than Owen’s.

Owen probably makes a small mistake here as he can’t make any better hands fold when he bets. That being said, due to his small barrel, he will get called by a lot of flush draws, coupled with the amount of equity he has when behind, makes the potential mistake just a minute one.

From a range perspective, he should be barreling small with his sets, two-pairs, and most of his draws. As a quirky strategic note, barreling with KT is better than QT in this spot. The reason is that when you hit the Ten on the river, you will beat QJ when you have KT, but you will still lose to that hand when you have QT.

Linus’ call is fine, especially because he has the Ac. By blocking Owen’s nut combo draws, he reduces the number of hands that can call his shove, making it less valuable to go all-in.

In theory, Owen’s purpose of barreling is to make Linus fold all of his speculative hands that may raise the flop and call a 3bet. This portion of Linus’ range includes combos like Ah8h, Ah7h, Th3h, Tc8x, etc. However, after the aggressive flop action, it’s difficult to determine how many of these hands Linus still holds.

River Action

The river comes the 9c, making the board KcQhJc2d9c. The pot is $11,902.

Owen QdTc checks, Linus AcTd shoves for $4,199, and Owen calls.

Simple River Analysis

Owen should check with QT in this spot as it’s too weak to value bet and too strong to bluff given Linus’ two-pair+ range composition.

Linus should always shove his AT with a club blocking Owen’s slow-played flushes.

Owen should probably fold with his pure bluff-catcher at this point. Linus’ range is so strong that he needs to turn all of his two-pair hands into a bluff to find enough of them to balance out the enormous amount of value hands (relative to his range).

Advanced River Analysis

The 9c river is an action card, completing both flushes and straights. That means that every hand in each player’s range changes its value greatly. It’s the worst card in the deck for Owen, as every draw in Linus’ range is completed now.

At this point, Linus probably only has two-pair or better in his range. For Owen, range checking is the best option, so he preserves the most equity for his entire range and prevents Linus from putting him in a tough spot with the weaker parts of it.

Linus’ shove is fine, especially given his nut flush blocker. Without it or the Tc flush blocker, he should probably check back as it’s unlikely that Owen will call with enough worse (that said, he called with QT, which should be folding in theory).

At this point, Linus’ range is so strong he would have to start turning his QJ, KJ, and KQ into bluffs to find any bluffs at all.

Despite the small shove, Owen should most likely still fold. He blocks some of Linus’ value hands such as AxTc and Tx flushes, but also many of his bluffs like KQ and QJ. All of this being said, it’s a very close spot, especially against one of the toughest and most aggressive poker players in the world.

Final Thoughts

This was an intense hand in which Owen took a low-frequency line, venturing deep into the game tree, forcing both players to create their strategies on the fly.

It is an approach that can be successful at the highest stakes – as he has proved with a fantastic track record – but it’s high-risk. Other players, also among the best in the world, utilize different approaches with a similar level of success.

That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned from it! If you’d like me to cover more hands from the Cash Game World Championship let me know in the comments below!

If you want more high-stakes hand analysis, check out Top Poker Pro Borrows Common Low Stakes Tactic ($99,136 Pot).

Til next time, good luck, grinders!