Doug Polk TRAPS Top Poker Pro in High Stakes Game (Analysis)

Poker is at its best when top players go to battle.

Today’s article will showcase just that: a hand between two damn near legendary pros (Doug Polk and Dan Smith) from a streamed cash game at Lodge Card Club.

The analysis will come from Uri Peleg’s latest strategy video for Upswing Poker.

Without further ado, let’s dive in!

Note: Want to master winning poker strategies without confusing solvers or complex math? Check out Uri Peleg’s new course “The Poker Blueprint” here. Get access now.

Important Background

Before getting into this hand analysis, you should understand the main principle of Uri’s Poker Blueprint strategy.

Always start by considering what pot size your hand wants. Then, try to navigate to that pot size as the hand progresses.

Uri will refer to “the pot size your hand wants” throughout this analysis and the Poker Blueprint course. 

Another key principle that comes up in this one: if the pot is already too big for your hand, you can consider bluffing.

Preflop

The blinds are $100/$200 ($200 ante) with a $400 straddle.

Dan raises to $1,100 on the Button with Qh Js. Doug 3-bets to $5,500 from the Big Blind with Ad 7d. Dan calls.

The effective stack is roughly $190,000.

Preflop Analysis

Uri begins his analysis by noting that the players are almost 500bb deep when factoring in the straddle.

Dan makes a standard raise on the Button with Queen-Jack offsuit. His raise size is good.

Doug’s 3-bet with Ace-Seven suited is good. Calling would also be a reasonable option.

Faced with this 3-bet, Dan can elect to call or fold. Both options have merit and should be done on occasion.

Flop

The flop comes As Th 7h. The pot is $11,700.

Doug bets $11,500. Dan calls.

Uri’s Flop Analysis

An action flop gives Doug two pair and Dan a gutshot straight draw.

Take a look at Uri’s thoughts on each player’s turn decisions:

We first need to ask ourselves: how big of a pot does each player want? What do they want to happen?

And here, when we look at Doug’s hand and we look at the amount of money behind, we’re like, obviously he has a very strong hand and he wants a lot of money to go in.

How would he be doing if all the money went in? Keep in mind how many runouts there are where all the money going in is good for you. Because let’s say the turn is a Kx, Qx, Jx, Tx, 9x, or 8x. How do you feel about getting 20 extra pots in there? And the answer is not so great.

So, Doug’s hand, while it wants a bigger pot, is going to have to re-assess street-by-street. Certainly, if the board goes 2x 3x, his hand might actually be close to wanting all the money. It depends on the run out. Whereas Dan’s hand has 0 showdown value, but it’s drawing to the nuts. So since the pot is too big for his hand, he could bluff at some point.

Dan has to keep in mind with his hand that, given it might turn into the nuts, it has kind of a higher incentive to bluff than if he had just air. Of course, this board is better for Doug than for Dan, so Doug is gonna play his range more aggressively.

He starts out with a pot-sized c-bet. And what he’s doing here is he’s saying, okay, I’m now taking my hands that want to play for lots of money. And it’s a question of how many of those hands are there.

Can Ace-King do this? Can Ace-Queen do this with all this money behind? Personally, I’m not completely sure at the stack depth that this is the most appropriate way to play those hands. If Doug were 100bb deep, certainly, this would be fine. Maybe even 200bb deep. But 400bb deep, I’m less sure. But he starts out with pot, which is certainly going in the right direction for him and denies equity from draws that Dan might have.

Dan should probably fold here quite often. Whenever you have a hand that should mostly fold, theory would say “sometimes call” because then when you hit, they never put you on a draw. But this is close. But probably a fold just because Doug bet so big.

Turn

The turn comes Qs making the board As Th 7h Qs. The pot is $34,700.

Doug checks. Dan checks.

Uri’s Turn Analysis

The turn gives Dan middle pair in addition to his gutshot straight draw. It also brings a second potential flush draw that both players have to be aware of.

Here are Uri’s thoughts on this:

We get the Qs and now Doug has to re-evaluate. And now his Ace-Seven is actually not aiming for such a big pot size anymore because he’s now losing to Ace-Queen and King-Jack.

Any hand with two spades has a lot of equity against him. So, any spade or heart river and he has to slow down. If the river is a Qx it counterfeits his two pair. So, there are all of these bad things potentially going on.

Now we’re in bad runout land. We have to re-evaluate. And our beautiful hand that wanted all the money now goes to wanting just a bit more money.

He could put around $20,000 in and that’s probably roughly it. And then there’s always a question of how. Do you want to bet $20,000 right now and check the river and hope? Or do you want to check and let your opponent put the money in?

Doug, in this instance, elects to check. How bad of a card the Qs is for him depends on how often Dan has King-Jack. And since Doug bet pot on the flop, this is where hand reading comes in because we’re always thinking about the narrative of the hand and who the card is good or bad for. And part of the nice thing with Doug’s big bet is that it’s supposed to fold out draws, which makes these cards not so bad.

But it looks like Doug doesn’t think that and certainly Dan doesn’t think that. So, they’re both playing in line with what’s going on.

Now, Dan in the situation has a pair of Queens. How big of a pot does a pair of Queens want? Well, if it checks down, he’s probably doing okay.

This is an appropriate pot size for him. I would say when Doug bets and then checks, a lot of his range is going to be hands that hit the Qs, some traps, and some give-ups. I wouldn’t mind Dan bluffing, but I don’t mind the check.

River

The river comes 2h making the final board As Th 7h Qs 2h. The pot is $34,700.

Doug checks. Dan bets $35,000.

Uri’s River Analysis

The river 2h brings in the front door flush draw. Check out Uri’s thoughts on this plus each player’s river decisions:

This card doesn’t change a lot. It does mean that Dan can now have more flushes. It was a nice runout for his range, so it’s okay to consider bluffing. And if you do bluff, you need to think about the story that you’re telling.

So Dan chooses to fire $35,000 after Doug checks. And what’s the story that he’s telling? He’s saying he has a hand that’s worth $35,000. But a flush is worth more than $35,000. So this is a bit of an odd bet. Is he saying he’s betting Ace-King or Ace-Jack for $35,000? That feels a bit too big.

So there’s something a bit odd about the $35,000 bet to me. And these things stand out, you know, depending on how proficient the player is. Generally speaking, less proficient players don’t have the thought process about the bet size. So it wouldn’t necessarily be odd. They might overplay a hand or underplay a hand because they don’t overbet. But Dan is a professional player, so this is a bit odd for him.

Let’s go back to Doug’s decision to check on the river. His hand is worth a small bet, maybe like $10,000. But there’s always a question of what’s the best way to get the money with your hand.

Here, it looks like Doug checks because it came consecutive good cards for Dan. And maybe Dan is going to put the money in for him. The idea with Ace-Seven as a hand strength is it stops Dan from betting Ace-King and Ace-Jack. Those are the main hands he might have and bet. So maybe he thinks he’ll get more money from them by checking than by betting. I think it’s a fair choice when you’re navigating to a pot size when out-of-position.

Facing Dan’s $35,000 bet, Doug is not super happy about it. You kind of have to call because of the dynamic of the situation. He checked Ace-Seven is a trap, so he doesn’t want to fold. But Dan went for a big bet. Now Ace-Seven is no longer really a trap. But with this size where it’s not clear enough what exactly is betting, Ace-Seven is kind of forced to call.

Generally speaking, well-played by both players. You know, they both could have easily chosen different paths, but I think they both kind of correctly recognized roughly where their hands were going for. Dan recognized that his hand was not worth very much despite being middle pair. Doug recognized how bad the board got for his Ace-Seven.

And I think even by Doug’s face on the river, you can tell that he has to call, but it’s not a snap-call.

Results

Doug calls and wins the $104,700 pot.

What Did You Think of Each Player’s Decisions?

Let us know in the comments.

This was the third part of Uri Peleg’s strategy series. Check out the previous parts if you missed them:

• Part 1 – Don’t Do This in Poker! Doug Polk vs Mariano High Stakes Analysis
• Part 2 – Elite Poker Coach Uses “Anti-GTO” Strategy

Note: Want to discover how to make the right play no matter the hand? Uri Peleg’s brand-new course “The Poker Blueprint” allows you to do just that. Get access now.