Where does the EV come from in poker?

Continuing on the idea from the article I wrote recently (Should You Play Like a Nit Preflop?), in this article, I am going to shift focus and give you a really quick, bird’s-eye view of where the expected value (EV) is coming from postflop.

This article is also going to be based on an unreleased video from Uri Peleg. That video (and many more) will be released in the Upswing Lab this summer.

So, let’s answer the question: Where is the EV coming from postflop?

Why You Should Trust the Advice in this Article 

Uri Peleg is the world’s best poker coach.

Think that’s hyperbole? The facts don’t lie:

• Uri’s top students (like Barak Wisbrod and Owen Messere) have won millions of dollars in high-stakes cash games
• Through his Guerrilla Poker stable, he’s helped turn many breakeven low-stakes players into winning medium and high-stakes players
• He doesn’t just teach — he’s won millions on the felt himself, too

This entire article is based on an unreleased video from Uri Peleg. That video (and many more) will be released in the Upswing Lab this summer.

You’re in good hands.

The Answer

In no dissimilar fashion to preflop, the vast majority of postflop EV comes from the very strong hands.

The best way to explore this idea is through a practical example.

Uri uses the example of an Ac 7d 2h rainbow flop with $50 in the pot.

If you hold a hand as strong as a set, you intuitively expect to win more than the $50 in the pot. In the image below, you will see that indeed the EV of 77 on this flop in a Big Blind vs Button scenario after opening and getting called, is higher than the size of the pot.

While 77 has around 96% equity, you can see that it has an expected value of roughly 12.9bb while the pot has only 5bb. If we extrapolate to our example by turning the big blind into $10, the expected value of 77 is $129. This is all while “only” having 96% equity of the $50 pot.

In other words, 77 is expecting to greatly over-realize its equity.

Then Uri gives the example of holding a hand like Kd 8h. While this hand has roughly 43% equity against Big Blind’s range, its EV is only around a quarter of the pot (1.31bb out of a 5bb pot), as you can see in the image below:

This means that weak hands will under-realize their equity.

Why does this happen? Well, according to Uri, the following is a common theme in poker strategy:

• Weak and medium hands underperform
• Strong hands overperform

The reason why weak and medium hands underperform is that these hands can only make bad decisions.

This happens because you are constantly put into situations where you are faced with bets that are too big, or you have to check and let your opponent catch up. It’s tough to play these hands exactly right unless you can see your opponent’s cards.

When you have a strong hand, however, you are always making money with it:

• If your opponent is bluffing, you make money
• If your opponent is raising, you make money
• If your opponent is calling, you make money
• If your opponent is folding, you make money (not ideal, but you still folded out his share of the pot)

These hands make money NO MATTER WHAT.

So, Should You Play Like a Nit Postflop?

Well, if you’ve read my previous article (Should You Play Like a Nit Preflop?), you can guess my answer will be: ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Staying within the scope of this article, the reason for this being the case is that, while bluffing seems like an unnecessary strategic maneuver from an EV generation perspective, not bluffing will severely cut into the profitability of your value hands when faced with higher-level, frequently recurring adversaries.

They will quickly tag you as a nit (the worst word in the entire poker dictionary) and stop paying you off as frequently when you have the goods. This will severely cut your win rate.

Wrapping Up

So there you go, the quick 5-minute version of where the EV is coming from postflop as per Uri Peleg. Your strong hands will make the vast majority of the win-rate in a given scenario, just like they do preflop, but not bluffing is not a good strategy as it can negatively affect the expected value of your strong hands. They will start going from winning big to winning small, to just winning the pot, as your opponents start figuring out that you only bet when you have the goods.

That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned something new from it! I love Uri’s advice, and I hope I translated that well to you!

Till next time, good luck, grinders!

If you’d like to learn more about how to maximize your EV at the tables, read: 10 Quick Poker Strategy Tips That Will Help Your Game.