This Poker Hand Gets Crazier and Crazier (Final Table)

Have you ever seen something that made you think “holy ****!”

This poker hand did exactly that for me.

There’s a $1.4 million first prize on the line. And this hand gets crazier on every street.

Note: Want to master winning poker strategies without confusing solvers or complex math? Check out Uri Peleg’s new course “The Poker Blueprint” here. Get access now.

Tournament Background

Tournament: GG Poker Super High Roller ($10,300 Buy-In)
Stage: Final Table 7-Handed
Blinds: 200,000/400,000 (50,000 ante)

Positions and Stack Sizes:

Small Blind: Juan Dominguez (68.2bb)
Big Blind: D Kaladjurdjevic (40.2bb)
Under the Gun: Alexander Zubov (24.3bb)
Lojack: Barak Wisbrod (36.7bb)
Hijack: Hazuzukaa (14.2bb)
Cutoff: Pavel Plesuv (27.5bb)
Button: A Piekazewicz (9.5bb)

Payouts:

1st – $1,421,680
2nd – $1,035,959
3rd – $799,751
4th – $617,609
5th – $477,158
6th – $368,856
7th – $285,345

Important Background

Before getting into this hand analysis, you should understand the main principle of Uri’s Poker Blueprint strategy.

Always start by considering what pot size your hand wants. Then, try to navigate to that pot size as the hand progresses.

Uri will refer to “the pot size your hand wants” throughout this analysis and the Poker Blueprint course. 

Another key principle that comes up in this one: if the pot is already too big for your hand, you can consider bluffing.

Preflop

5 players fold. Small Blind raises 3.5bb with Qs Js. Big Blind calls with As 8c.

Preflop Analysis

An important dynamic to begin with is that this hand takes place between the Small Blind who is chip-leading and the Big Blind who is second in chips.

Small Blind makes a standard raise with Queen-Jack suited. As the chip leader, he should be raising very wide and putting a lot of pressure on the Big Blind.

The Big Blind calls with Ace-Eight offsuit, which is correct. It’s worth noting that he should play defensively, in general, given that he is second in chips playing vs the chip leader.

Flop

The flop comes Ah Ad Kh. The pot is 7.875bb.

Small Blind bets 1bb. Big Blind raises 2.7bb. Small Blind calls.

Uri’s Flop Analysis

Small Blind flops a gutshot straight draw vs the trips for Big Blind.

The first question Uri asks is fundamental: How much money does each player’s hand want?

Small Blind has the kind of hand that would like to bet small once then check down (unless improved). He makes the small bet, which is just perfect for his exact hand.

Big Blind, on the other hand, has an extremely strong hand. And given the wideness of ranges and the shallowness of stacks, this might be a hand that wants to get all the chips in. And if it does, the question is always how. We know he wants a bigger pot. So he could go for it [with a raise] right away or he could just call.

Both of those options are on the table. Each has its advantages and disadvantages. The more aggressive your opponent is, firing with air and putting pressure on, maybe you want to call.

Some guys play back against [raises], or disbelieve raises, or they’re calling stations, or they’re just passive. And then you have to build a pot size on your own.

Big Blind makes a small raise. And here, it’s important to recognize at this point, Small Blind’s hand is always going to call because of the pot odds. But the pot is a bit too big for him in the sense that he should no longer be very happy to show down Queen-high. He can consider turning his hand into a bluff at some point.

Turn

The turn comes Jh making the board Ah Ad Kh Jh. The pot is 13.275bb.

Small Blind checks. Big Blind bets 4.4bb. Small Blind raises 11.5bb. Big Blind calls.

Uri’s Turn Analysis

The turn puts three to a flush out there and gives Small Blind bottom pair. Here’s how Uri evaluates each turn decision:

The Jh shuffles things up. And this is where the beauty of the hand is. Because as this hand progresses, these players have to constantly re-evaluate how much their hand is worth and how much money it wants.

Look at Queen-Jack. You just made a pair of Jacks. Is it good enough to show down? Well, yeah, you can now check down and maybe you win. And with a flush and a straight coming in, Big Blind doesn’t want to go for stacks anymore with his trip aces.

But Big Blind still wants a bit more money in the pot. So something like a 1/3 pot bet would be, I’m guessing, roughly where Ace-Eight wants to get to. And that’s what he does. So he re-evaluates correctly.

And now facing this 1/3 pot bet, Small Blind’s Jack is no longer good. So just like Queen-high was not too happy facing the raise, a pair of Jacks is not too happy facing this bet. Sure, you have a gutshot. But there is a flush and a pair on the board. So the pot ballooned out of his comfort zone. And once that happens, you have the option of turning your hand into a bluff.

We don’t want to turn Ace-Two into a bluff here because it’s a bit too strong. But Queen-Jack is weak enough where it’s a reasonable thing to do.

And here, again, there are so many elements to this hand because what sizing do you go with? What value range are you representing? What bluffing range would you have? All of these are things that both of these guys should be thinking about at the same time. And that is what makes this hand so unique.

Now Big Blind is the one who has to re-evaluate because he was making this bet probably hoping to check back the river. And now, boom. The pot ballooned out of control. His Ace-Eight, was raising for value on the flop then betting for value on the turn. But now the pot is too big. So what do you do with Ace-Eight?

Big Blind has a boat draw. So you can’t do anything other than call on the turn. You just have too many outs to improve on an Ax, Kx, Qx, or 8x. Your opponent is presumably repping a flush more than anything else.

River

The river comes Ts making the final board Ah Ad Kh Jh Ts. The pot is 36.275bb.

Small Blind bets 3.6bb. Big Blind raises all-in 22.48bb.

Uri’s River Analysis

A crazy river card improves Small Blind’s semi-bluff to a straight. Here are Uri’s thoughts on this street:

It’s a tough spot with a straight because your value range when you raised the turn is a flush. So if you bet your straight, is it even a value bet at that point? How big can you bet with a straight? Can you check with a straight? It’s a weird spot to play. And in these weird spots when you’re out of position, you have to ask yourself: How big of a pot does a straight want?

And the answer is it’s roughly what’s in the middle. Maybe a tiny bit more. But this is roughly good enough. You’re not reasonably getting called by worse with any sized bet. So he has to re-evaluate.

Big Blind has just a bluff-catcher. He only beats bluffs and he removes some of the bluffs. Small Blind is telling him he has a straight. That’s the main hand that makes sense to bet the size. Or maybe a very low flush.

And now he’s in this situation where he had his trips and a boat draw. But it came the worst runout you could imagine for his hand. And now he’s facing a 10% pot bet. How do you fold trips to a 10% pot bet? So a lot of people here would just kind of click call, get shown the bad news, and move on.

But he’s looking at his Ace-Eight, and he’s thinking there are always 3 options in poker. The pot is too big for my hand, so, yes, I can call. I’m not supposed to fold very often in theory, although it’s very hard for my opponent to come up with bluffs. But I can also shove because he’s saying he has something like a straight or a weak flush.

I could easily have better, so why not turn my Ace-Eight into a bluff? So this hand, which was raising flop for value, betting turn for value, calling turn as a draw, decides to turn itself into a bluff. And this is like haymaker after haymaker. And now Small Blind has to look at his Quen-Jack and be like, okay. This is too big for my hand.

Now my hand is a bluff-catcher again. And now he has to think, well, what would my opponent go with for value? And he has to remember this is an MTT. His opponent would probably not go very thin because he doesn’t want to risk busting. So what would he go with for value?

Well, boats. But most of the hands that make boats would have 3-bet preflop. And then flushes, maybe. So high flushes and medium flushes. Those are the hands he’s worried about.

And he has to think, are those hands going for it? Would they be too scared? Which bluffs are there? Which bluffs are there is crucial. And here you have to go through the process of hand reading and be like, well, he raised the flop. That’s some flush draws. Would you raise flush draws? Maybe not that often. So, yeah, some flush draws, some Ax. Which Ax? Maybe Ax with a 9x, 8x, or 7x.

All of those hands would have bet the turn. All those hands would have called the raise, and those would be his potential bluffing combos on the river. Versus his potential value hands, which, as we said, will mostly be flushes. And how many of those played this way?

Because like we said, the way Big Blind played makes a lot of sense for Ace-Nine through Ace-Seven. Would he turn those into a bluff? This is a spot where a theoretical machine would give you a perfect answer, and then it wouldn’t matter what you do. But humans constantly mess these spots up.

Results

Small Blind calls with the straight and wins the massive 81.24bb pot. Big Blind is eliminated in 7th place.

Here was Uri’s overall thoughts on this hand:

I think, in a way, both players played it amazingly well. Even Big Blind who lost played it amazingly well. Haymaker after haymaker, the hand value changes. The line changes and you have to get to the river and keep track of everything. And, yeah, really just an elite-level hand.

What do you think of this bluff on the river?

Let me know in the comments.

If you enjoyed this hand and Uri’s analysis, check out the previous parts in this series:

• Part 1 – Don’t Do This in Poker! Doug Polk vs Mariano High Stakes Analysis
• Part 2 – Elite Poker Coach Uses “Anti-GTO” Strategy
• Part 3 – Doug Polk TRAPS Top Poker Pro in High Stakes Game (Analysis)

Note: Want to discover how to make the right play no matter the hand? Uri Peleg’s brand-new course “The Poker Blueprint” allows you to do just that. Get access now.