3 Spots You Should Almost Never C-Bet

Being aggressive is how the best players win at poker.

Through the power of aggression, you have two chances to win:

1. You can win when your bet gets called by a worse hand
2. You can win when your opponent folds

However, there are some situations in which it’s better to play passively.

This (recently updated) article is a deep analytical dive into three of those spots — specific situations in which you should almost never c-bet as the preflop aggressor.

Let’s check them out with the help of the Lucid Poker Trainer and PioSOLVER.

Spot #1: Out of Position as the Preflop Raiser (Against the Button, Cutoff, or Middle Position) on Low Connected Boards

I am referring to boards such as 6c 4d 3c after you raise preflop and get called by someone who has position on you.

At first glance, you may think that, because you have more high overpairs than your opponents (like Pocket Aces and Pocket Kings), you should use an aggressive c-bet strategy.

However, a passive c-bet strategy is in order because there is an asymmetric distribution of super-strong hands.

Specifically, flopped sets make up a much larger portion of the caller’s range than your range. When a good player cold calls preflop, their range will be very tight and contain many medium and small pocket pairs.

In total, the caller’s range will have around 100 combinations of hands, while the open-raising range will have somewhere around 200-300 combinations. And that 100 combo range contains a surprisingly high percentage of strong hands like sets and overpairs.

To demonstrate this, let’s say you and your opponent both have all 9 combinations of sets in your range (66, 44, and 33). Those 9 combinations represent roughly 3.6% of your range (9/250). At the same time, those 9 combos represent 9% of your opponent’s range (9/100).

This asymmetric distribution of strong hands means that the cold-caller has a huge nut advantage, which makes him incentivized to raise with a ton of hands. C-betting frequently into this player’s strong range is usually not a great move.

With a few clicks in Lucid Poker, we can see how the solver plays as the cutoff (as the preflop raiser) versus the button (who called preflop) on the 6c 4d 3c flop:

As you can see, the Cutoff should be checking 100% of his hands.

To further illustrate why a passive strategy is in order, I’ve used PioSolver to node prepare a custom simulation in which the Cutoff starts betting with an intuitive range:

I made the solver bet with:

• Almost all of the overpairs
• The top pairs
• Almost all of the flush draws
• All the open-ended straight draws
• Some 2 overcards-type hands with a club.

If you were to bet this flop, this sure seems like the hands with which you’d do it, right?

With this suboptimal (but seemingly reasonable) strategy locked in for the cutoff, I will now run a simulation to see the button’s optimal response.

Look at how aggressive the button gets to play:

The solver starts raising almost its entire continue range. This strategy effectively takes away the initiative from the cutoff, who is unable to muster an effective counter-strategy. This is due to how many nutted hands the button has in their range (relatively speaking).

Do yourself a favor in spots like these as the preflop raiser and play a relatively passive/defensive strategy on the flop, especially against good players.

By the way…

You can learn about way more flops that you should play this way in the Upswing Lab.

In a premium module called When to C-Bet Everything, Doug Polk and Ryan Fee run through all the flops on which you should never or rarely c-bet. They also cover the flops on which you should always c-bet. And the flops that fall somewhere in between.

(If you’re already a member, check the Best of Doug Polk section to find this module.)

Spot #2: Out of Position as the Small Blind Preflop Raiser (Against the Big Blind) on Low Connected Boards

The reasoning behind this approach is similar to the previous spot. It has to do with the Big Blind (caller) having a large nut advantage on the flop. The only difference now is that both players have roughly the same amount of combinations in their range.

Let’s take a look at a 7h 5d 4c flop inside Lucid Poker. This is the solver’s strategy for the Small Blind:

 

 

As you can see by the large amount of dark green, the solver elects to check almost its entire range.

The reason for this passive strategy lies in the fact that the Small Blind’s disadvantage at the top of the range.

• Small Blind’s range is 3.2% two-pair or better
• Big Blind’s range is 7.1% two-pair or better
  

This is simply because Big Blind is more likely to have hands such as 75-offsuit, 86-offsuit, 54-offsuit, 74-suited, and 63-suited.

The Small Blind should usually be folding (or maybe limping) with these hands preflop, so they aren’t in his range.

The trend is clear so far: play more conservatively when you have fewer super-strong hands than your opponent and you’re out of position. We’ve seen two examples of this on low connected flops.

Spot #3: Out of Position as the Preflop 3-Bettor from the Small Blind (Versus the Button) on Low Connected Boards

The same pattern emerges: low connected boards are bad for the preflop raiser.

But this time I’m talking about a common 3-bet pot matchup. The button raises, you 3-bet in the small blind, and the button calls.

This makes a lot of sense because the preflop raiser’s range is broadway-heavy, while the caller’s range contains a lot more hands with medium and low cards.

In these cases, the Small Blind has the overpair advantage (again), but won’t have as many (or any) of the two-pairs and straights. 

Let’s take a peek into Lucid Poker to see how the solver players a 7d 6d 5c flop as the small blind 3-bettor:

 

The theme of this article comes deeper into focus as the solver once again checks extremely often. With almost the entire range in this case.

This, again, happens because the small blind is lacking in the super-strong hands department. She doesn’t have any two-pair combinations, or straight combinations, and is also missing the bottom set. The Button, on the other hand, has all straights, two pairs, and sets in his range (except the 43-suited straight).

If the small blind decided to c-bet too often here (with hands like overpairs and draws), then the Button could show a big profit by raising very aggressively with an equity-driven range, which would torpedo the small blind’s expected value (EV) in the hand.

Final Thoughts

The pattern shown here is pretty clear: low-connected boards are not the best for the preflop raiser. You should definitely look to tamper down your aggression on those boards (by a lot), or risk getting pummeled by an aggressive player who understands the mistake that you are making.

That’s all for this article guys and gals! I hope you enjoyed it and that you learned something new! As usual, make sure to leave a comment with your questions or your suggestions and I’ll do my best to answer.

Here is a quick article I recommend reading next: 3 Tips for Playing the Turn After Check-Raise Bluffing Flop.

If you liked this type of analysis, let me know in the comments. If you want more like it, I highly recommend watching the When to C-Bet Everything module inside the Upswing Lab. It will pay huge dividends for you game.

Till’ next time, good luck, grinders!