Trapping Top Pair with $751,073 On The Line (Final Table EPT London)
You’re at the final table of the EPT London Main Event. You’ve already outlasted over 700 players in the 5K buy-in tournament, and just 7 more stand in your way of winning over $750K.
You raise preflop with King-Queen offsuit and get one call. The flop is Queen-high. Are you betting or checking?
Upswing’s Precision Poker course arrives February 19. The course brings a fresh approach to poker study from the mind of a chess International Master turned poker pro, Alex Vuilleumier, who found himself in this exact spot with King-Queen.
Important note: If you purchase Precision Poker by February 23, you’ll get Alex’s $299 Exploit & Conquer course for free!
You can get on the waitlist for the course by clicking here!
The following hand analysis comes from the 2022 EPT London Main event, in which Alex finished third for a $334,784 payday. The blinds are 30,000/60,000/60,000, and eight players remain out of a field of 749 players.
Preflop Action
Alex begins this hand with 2.05 million chips and is covered by his opponent.
Alex opens to 135,000 UTG with . David Docherty calls on the BTN with .
Flop Action
The flop comes . The pot is 420,000.
Alex checks, Docherty bets 105,000, and Alex calls.
Flop Analysis
According to the solver, Alex’s can go one of three different ways with KQ offsuit. He can bet for a small size, bet for a bigger size, or check.
Alex likes checking in this spot, partially due to the fact that he doesn’t know that he can get three streets of value by triple-barreling KQ. Alex also contends that checking your entire range is a great option in this spot (and that’s backed up by the solver).
“The big idea of checking range is that you’ll never make a big mistake,” Alex says. “Whereas if you start betting, you can make mistakes. When you check range, it is your opponent who will have problems.”
“If you bet big, it’s very easy to play against for your opponent. If you choose the small sizing, it is a little more difficult to play (for your opponent). If you check, that’s more difficult to play (for your opponent) than both of the bet sizings.”
Turn Action
The turn makes the board . The pot is 630,000.
Alex checks, Docherty bets 250,000, and Alex calls.
Turn Analysis
Alex stays in flow and checks again. While Docherty’s turn barrel is a good play ( is a mixed-frequency check/bet according to the solver), Alex contends that it would be easy to start over bluffing with hands like A7, A8, and A9 suited (all of which are mixed-frequency check/bets) in Docherty’s spot.
“Why should go with A7 but less with A9?” Alex says. “What are you really hoping to achieve with A7 and not with A9? You can massively overshoot your bluffing frequencies here.”
Alex’s call is standard with KQ against Docherty’s 40%-pot bet size, and the hand goes to the river.
River Action
The river makes the board . The pot is 1,130,000.
Alex checks, Docherty bets 700,000, and Alex calls.
River Analysis
In a solver sim, Docherty rarely arrives at the river with in this hand, but when he does the correct play is to fire the triple-barrel bluff. The bet leaves Docherty with only about 10 big blinds behind, so Docherty is taking plenty of risk with this line.
While in-game this might seem like an uncomfortable call for Alex, in solver land the call with KQ is standard. Alex does make the call, and takes in the 2.5 million pot.
Precision Poker Launches February 19th
Alex’s upcoming Masterclass on Poker Methodology goes live on Upswing Poker later this month.
You can get on the waitlist now for this course, which aims to be unlike anything seen before in the realm of poker training:
