What Is Showdown Value & Why Does It Matter?

Understanding showdown value is one key to becoming a winning poker player.

It is a fundamental concept that shapes postflop strategy and in this article, I will do my best to explain what it means and why it’s important.

Let’s dive in!

What is Showdown Value?

Showdown value refers to how often a certain hand expects to win at showdown.

Explained more technically, showdown value is the equity that a certain hand has when the action is checked down to the river.

Example #1 – 0 Showdown Value

Let me show you a couple of examples. In the next image, you will see a hand I played recently where I open-raised on the Button with Js 4s and got called by the Big Blind.

This is the flop that came (I’m using the free Upswing Poker hand replayer for these screenshots):

The player in the Big Blind checks to me. My hand is an example of a hand with very little showdown value.

Imagine we check down to the river and don’t improve. What is the likelihood (or equity) that the Small Blind will check down with a worse hand than my Jack-high?

According to the solver, my hand will win 0% of the time when the action checks down (unless I improve by hitting  the Jx, 4x or one of my backdoor draws).

Therefore, this is a hand with effectively 0 showdown value.

Example #2 – Significant Showdown Value

Let’s look at a different example now where I raised on the Button with Ac Ts and the Big Blind called. This is the flop that came:

This is an example of a non-made hand that has a significant amount of showdown value.

Let’s imagine the action checks down again and we’ve missed all our draws. What are the odds that the Big Blind will hold a weaker hand than Ace-Ten offsuit?

According to the solver, it will be roughly 83%. Ace-Ten might even be strong enough to make a thin value bet without hitting a pair on certain runouts, hoping to get called by worse Ace-highs and King-highs.

A Quick Note on Pairs

Paired hands have varying amounts of showdown value.

2s 2d on a Ks Jc 9c flop has a little showdown value. 9s 8s on that same flop has a medium amount of showdown value. And, of course, a good pair like As Kd has very high showdown value.

The way you should play your pairs is heavily influenced by how much showdown value a given pair has. Regardless, the equity of a pair seldom goes to absolute 0.

Why Does Showdown Value Matter?

Showdown value is one of the variables that shape the optimal strategy that you should take with a certain hand (especially on the river). 

But let’s take a step back and I will explain how it impacts the optimal strategy on earlier streets.

On the Flop

Imagine you opened on the Button, the Big Blind called and the board came Kh 8d 5c.

Let’s think about two hands you could have:

• Ac 9d
• Ac 4d

Starting with the obvious: Ace-Nine offsuit has more showdown value than Ace-Four offsuit. In other words, when the action checks down and you have Ace-Nine, you will win more often than when you have Ace-Four. Let’s go a bit deeper now.

If Ac 9d wins more often when checking, this means that the expected value (EV) of checking is higher. Conversely, if Ac 4d wins less often when checking, the EV of checking is lower.

So, let’s quickly think about a few differences between betting with Ace-Nine vs Ace-Four here:

Betting Ace-Nine has two major cons:

• It folds out all worse Ax hands
• It forces folds from 9x hands that you dominate, like Qx 9x and Jx 9x

Betting Ace-Four has two major pros:

• It folds out some stronger Ax hands
• It forces folds from hands that you dominate

The main takeaway here is this: Betting with Ac 4d is better than with Ac 9d because it has less showdown value and benefits more from getting folds.

Now, take a look at how the Lucid Poker Trainer suggests playing this spot with both hands:

There are a lot of factors at play here, but you’ll notice that the Ace-high hands with less showdown value (like Ace-Four) tend to bet more often than the ones with more showdown value (like Ace-Nine or Ace-Queen).

Note: You can apply this same thought process to turn decisions.

On the River

Now that we talked about the flop, let’s take a look at why showdown value is most important on the river.

This part gets a bit complicated — and you aren’t meant to do any of the following math at the table. But if you can internalize this game mechanic, it will pay dividends for you.

Suppose you are in position on the river and your opponent checks to you. 

Let’s compare two potential bluffing hands. With each of them, you can either check back and take your showdown value OR attempt a bluff.

Hand #1 is a low pair that has 15% equity* against the opponent’s range. Hand #2 is King-high, which has 2% equity.

*On the river, equity and showdown value are interchangeable

The pot is 10bb. Let’s assume that if you bet the size of the pot, your opponent will fold 53% of the time (and, for simplicity, I’ll assume that there are no blocker differences between these hands).

The expected values of betting and checking for each hand are as follows.

Hand 1 – The Low Pair

• If you check back, you’ll win the 10bb pot 15% of the time. That means the EV of checking back is 1.5bb.
• If you bet the pot, you’ll lose an extra 10bb 47% of the time and win 10bb 53% of the time. That comes out to an EV of 0.6bb for betting.
• The gap between these two EV numbers is 0.9bb in favor of checking.

Hand 2 – King-high:

• If you check back, you’ll win the 10bb pot 2% of the time. That means the EV of checking back is 0.2bb.
• If you bet the pot, the EV is the same as before: 0.6bb.
• The gap between these two EV numbers is 0.4bb in favor of betting.

From this example, we can see that even though both hands are +EV bluffs. But the hand with less showdown value benefited much more (1.3bb on average) from betting. 

If you could only bluff with one of these hands, you should choose to the King-high because it has less showdown value.

Note: In real-world examples, you will often find that blockers also have a decent impact on the optimal strategy, as they can give hands higher or lower fold equity, thus altering the EV of betting.

Did you learn anything new about showdown value? Or do you have any questions?

Let me know in the comments below.

Understanding showdown value is one of the cornerstones of poker. By working diligently on your game through the lens I just provided, you’ll be better equipped to make these crucial decisions about betting or checking!

That’s all for this article!

If you want to learn about another critical poker concept, check out What Is Playability & Why Does It Matter?

Till’ next time, good luck, grinders!