With 5 players left in the 2019 EPT Monte Carlo Main Event, Ryan Riess and Manig Loeser played a hand that shocked poker fans around the world.
Here's what the stacks looked like before the hand was dealt:
And the prize structure:
Riess started the hand as by far the shortest stack -- even shorter after posting the 200,000 big blind ante -- which makes ICM a relatively small factor. His play and the following analysis will be based strictly on what play wins the most chips, for the sake of simplicity.
The hand is recapped below, and you can expand the analysis sections by clicking on them.
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Tim Jenkins contributed to this article.
The blinds are 100k/200k with a 200k big blind ante.
The action folds to Loeser, the chip leader with 9.7 million (48.5bb), who completes from the small blind for 100k more with 6♠ 2♥.
Riess, the short stack with 980k behind (6bb total), looks down at T♠ 2♣ and checks.
The flop is dealt J♦ 9♦ 8♣.
Loeser checks. Riess checks back.
The dealer burns and turns the J♣. (The board is now J♦ 9♦ 8♣ J♣.)
Loeser checks. Riess checks.
The river is the 9♥, completing the double-paired J♦ 9♦ 8♣ J♣ 9♥ board.
Loeser overbets 980k into the 600k pot, putting Riess all-in. Riess calls.
Again, the preflop ranges for each player in this rare spot are very unclear and will deviate greatly from player to player.
Considering the two types of ranges we used in our analysis above, we can conclude ten-high should be called versus this overbet shove on the river.
Now that I've hopefully convinced you that this was the correct call, let's take a moment to give some serious credit to Ryan Riess. There's a big difference between analyzing the hand after the fact and actually sliding the chips into the pot with ten-high and 5 players left at a major final table.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis as much as I enjoyed working on it!
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Good luck out there, y'all.
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