When a WSOP Champ Called All-in with Ten-High (Analysis)

Loeser's Perspective

Loeser can profitably open-shove 79% of hands here versus a 6bb stack (according to SnapShove), but strong players may also opt to build a limping range in this spot because it allows them to play (and profit with) even more than 79% of hands.

Let's break down Loeser's possible limping range into two categories, traps and weak hands that are protected by the traps, as well as why such hands benefit from limping.

Traps: 66-AA

These hands benefit from limping because they don't accomplish much by shoving. The hands in Riess' folding range versus a shove (weak offsuit hands and the very worst suited hands) have very little equity versus 66-AA, so there isn't much equity to deny. And if Riess has a decent hand, he will almost certainly shove over the limp anyway.

Additionally, when Loeser limps these hands and Riess checks, Loeser will still be able to realize his strong hands' equity because stacks are very shallow. If Riess catches a piece of the board postflop, Loeser will likely stack him.

Weak hands: 94o, 84o, 74o, 64o, 93o, 83o, 73o, 53o, 43o, 92o*, 62o*, 52o*, 42o*, 32o*

*Included in this example range at a 50% frequency.

These hands benefit from limping because they get to see a flop and realize equity, which would not be the case if Loeser folded with them. It's tough to know exactly how many of these weak hands Loeser would limp here, but the above is a reasonable estimation.

That said, it seems obvious that most players (perhaps even Loeser) can not profitably limp with the very weakest hands at this stack depth. I know I'd opt to fold and give Riess a walk in this hand, and I think most, if not all of the players reading this would be wise to do the same.

Riess' Perspective

Riess will be shoving a very wide range of hands over Loeser's limp (60%, at least). It's tough to know exactly how Riess should and would build his checking range, but there are some obvious checking hands, such as:

• Strong pairs (77+). These hands don't benefit much from equity denial and want to give Loeser's weak hands the chance to catch a piece.
• Offsuit trash (32o, 85o, 53o, etc). These hands are happy to take a free flop and they block Loeser's limp-folding range, making it slightly more likely he's trapping.

There is a less obvious category of hands Riess could reasonably check with here: suited hands with a high card and a low card. Here's a visual representation of that part of the hand grid:

These hands benefit from checking because they dominate Loeser's limp-folding range and will realize equity well. That said, I suspect that most players in-game will opt to push their equity preflop by shoving these hands at a 100% frequency (which is also probably the better play).

Since including these high card-low card suited hands in Riess' range will impact the results of our solver-based postflop analysis, each of the following sections will include the solver's play with and without these hands included in Riess' preflop checking range. (The reason I've chosen to include these unlikely hands at all will become clear in the river analysis section.)

The rest of Riess' hands will shove either because they have enough equity when called (ATo, J9o, Q7s, etc) and/or because they benefit greatly from getting Loeser's weak hands to fold (32s, 74s, 82s, etc).

Now, let's move on to the flop.