Edge-Passing in Poker: When Folding Profitable Hands Is the Right Play
“Gotta know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.” – Kenny Rogers
Folding AKo to cold 4bet 5-handed in WSOP Main Event. – Kenny Hallaert
In today’s article, you’re going to learn what the two great Kennys know is one of the most important skills in tournament poker.
While building big stacks is imperative for success in MTTs, and mastering ICM is huge for your ROI, this article is about neither of those skills. Those critical areas have immense computational power and thousands of lab hours backing them, producing accurate, money-printing strategies.
The skill we’ll focus on lives in the uncomfortable, speculative unknown. It requires sharp instincts and the ability to put all the pieces together better than your opponents.
It’s called edge-passing.
What is Edge-Passing?
Edge-passing is exactly what it sounds like: passing on an edge—usually in the form of a fold. In a game that rewards cumulative profitable decisions, edge-passing can seem counterproductive. Making a habit of folding when you’re not “supposed to” means your opponents’ bluffs gain EV. Do it too often and your opponents print.
And don’t forget the impact of a villain’s successful, shown bluff on your ego. Feels bad, man.
Example
Before going any further, let me illustrate. Imagine you’re playing 30bb effective stacks. The Cutoff opens, you call on the Button, the Small Blind shoves all-in, the Cutoff folds, and the action is back on you. How do you proceed?
Take a look below.
Lucid GTO cEV chart – 30bb effective stacks
Button response facing Small Blind shove after Cutoff open and Button call
- Green: Call
- Blue: Fold
In this example, the bottom of your calling range includes 66, ATo, A9s (54% frequency), and KJs (45% frequency). The mixed calls break even, ATo earns 0.38bb, and 66 earns 0.55bb. Over the long run, calling off with this range versus a solid Small Blind reshove range looks flawless.
Or does it?
This is where things get murky—and why the topic has fueled countless study group debates.
Why is that?
Future Game Considerations and the Problem with Them
Unlike the Six Million Dollar Man, we don’t have the technology—yet.
The study tools currently available to the public are extremely limited in their ability to solve future game situations. A program like HRC (Hold’em Resources Calculator) can account for future hands, but only a small number, and only preflop. Similarly, what we have for both preflop and postflop is capped at 3-handed play.
This isn’t necessarily a problem. What it shows is that MTTs are far from solved and that playing speculatively isn’t inherently wrong. As long as your rationale is coherent, the chance that your deviation produces higher EV or ROI than the computer’s output is well above zero.
The issue is that you risk being wrong when there’s already a clearly profitable play. Having to explain to your backers why you deviated can be awkward, painful, and tense—especially if the deviation didn’t work out. In those cases, it’s important to have a reasonable explanation for your “bad” behavior, which is exactly what I’ll get into in the next section.
When to Edge-Pass
What reasons might you have to edge-pass?
To answer this, ask yourself a few key questions in-game. Doing so will help you “brainsolve” a defensible solution.
Q1. What Am I Giving Up?
Before you decide to fold your hand, it’s imperative to know what that hand is actually worth. In the first example, the Button’s 66 makes 0.55bb as a call versus the Small Blind’s reshove. That’s guaranteed EV straight to your pocket.
While this is profitable, it’s important to compare the EV of your hand to the highest-EV combos in your range. Preflop, that means pocket aces. In this instance, holding AA is worth about 26bb. Your pair of sixes is worth roughly 2% of what aces are worth.
The point is simple: if you fold, you’re not giving up much.
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Some pros adopt a 5% minimum of aces, while others choose 10% as their stack-off threshold. In this instance, the former would stack off with 77, ATs, KQs, and AJo. The latter wouldn’t call with less than 88 or AJ.
This highlights the speculative nature of edge-passing—the lines are arbitrary. The next question will help you decide where to draw yours.
Q2. What is My Edge in This Game?
Accurately estimating how you fare against your opponents is a huge factor in deciding whether it’s time to edge-pass. Sizing them up correctly requires disciplined objectivity, since being contemptuous toward your competition in poker is not only easy—it’s costly.
You’ll want to consider this question in three layers.
1. How am I doing relative to the entire field?
Naturally, larger-field MTTs provide more value since they attract weaker competition. If your skill set is clearly above the tournament average, passing on slightly profitable spots will often result in better long-term outcomes than strict GTO play.
Increasing your own variance in soft fields benefits the weaker players, since they get to gamble against you and reduce your ability to realize edge postflop.
In tougher fields, taking marginally profitable spots is much more forgiving. The ROIs of winning players are already lower due to the higher caliber of competition, so locking in guaranteed EV is welcome.
2. How am I doing relative to my table?
This point echoes the previous one, but here the focus is on your table rather than the entire field (which can feel more abstract). At the table level, you have access to immediate, real-time information, allowing you to execute a much more precise strategy.
When your table has a higher concentration of weaker players, you should be reluctant to flip or take marginal preflop spots. Even at a tough table, if the broader field contains plenty of dead money, it can be very sensible to hold out for a table break—or for a few bust-outs to bring in fresh opponents.
3. What stage of the tournament are we at?
This matters—a lot.
In Upswing’s new Lab 2.0 with Phemo, a high-stakes crusher and coach, he explains that the goals of each stage of a tournament differ. This is crucial when you’re facing a marginal call, bet, or bluff.
In the earliest stages, you have plenty of time to accumulate chips from weaker competition. As the tournament nears its end, however, the concentration of tougher players demands greater respect for the game—meaning you might need to flick in that uncomfortable call.
The key idea is that beyond the average competition of the field and your table, you must account for the demands of the current stage. Some flips, even if won, double your stack but don’t double your ROI. Others—such as a flip at the final two tables—can mean playing for the majority of chips in play, massively increasing your chances of a podium finish or outright win, which skyrockets your ROI.
Q3. What Happens When?
So—you know the EV of your combo. You know how you fare against the field, your table, and the current stage of the tournament. And you still aren’t sure.
Okay. Well, what happens when?
In the first question of this protocol, you’re weighing EV risk and reward. This one is different. EV risk and reward is about the trees. Asking what happens when is about seeing the forest.
Answering this question requires both intuition and foresight. You need to visualize how future scenarios could play out depending on the decision you make. To do this well, you must understand the opponents at your table. How will they respond when the table dynamic shifts after this hand?
In potential all-in situations, you want to know three things:
1. What happens if I double up (Call and win)?
As mentioned earlier, the benefit of doubling up varies depending on the stage of the tournament.
For example, in Hand 1 of the tournament, doubling up from 200bb to 400bb has little impact on your chances of winning the tournament or even making the money. This highlights the lowered incentive to gamble early for small EV gains.
Do you really want to play for stacks 200bb effective with AKo or QQ? That’s up to you. But flipping and winning with 66 at 15bb effective when three tables remain—and the chip leader has 40bb—can produce excellent outcomes.
If you win, you become one of the contending stacks and put yourself in a much stronger position to reach the final table. The extra chips also let you open more hands comfortably and apply pressure to the stacks shorter than yours.
2. What happens if they double up (call and lose)?
This question should factor in your opponent’s tendencies and their position, on top of the points already discussed.
For example, let’s say your opponent is aggressive and sits directly to your left. Doubling them up will mean facing a lot more future resistance.
Or consider if they’re seated directly to the left of the table whale. Do you really want to give them the stack that allows them to run over the weakest player at the table—at your expense—when your upside is only marginal EV?
The principle here is simple: even when the rules suggest a call, you don’t want to damage your future prospects.
3. What happens if I fold?
It’s important not to overlook this one. If you reduce every decision to a “this or that” dichotomy, you miss out on the potential benefits of the third option.
In today’s example, you have 66 with 30bb. Calling is worth just over half a big blind. You’ve already invested 2.2bb from calling the Cutoff open. If you fold, your opponent gains a small EV boost from collecting the open, your call, the big blind, and the antes. However, you retain ~28bb—a stack that plays very similarly to 30bb.
Nearing the money but not quite on the bubble, you might choose to muck it. Folding here preserves your ability to continue making successful opens and c-bets without much disruption.
Ultimately, folding is the right choice when calling and losing and calling and winning don’t significantly improve your situation—and when the EV of your hand is, frankly, meh.
At this stage of the protocol, the key is seeing all potential outcomes and selecting the one that serves you best—not just in this tournament, but in your career. (For example: Tamayo’s fold with QQ in the 2024 WSOP Main Event.)
Key Takeaways:
Edge-passing is the act of intentionally passing on profitable spots, usually in preflop all-in scenarios. “Waiting for a better spot” is real. You edge-pass when you reason that surviving to fight another day will reward you more than blindly mimicking GTO solutions.
When edge-passing, ask yourself:
- What am I giving up? Know the EV you’re sacrificing.
- What is my edge in this game? Assess how you stack up against the field and your table.
- What happens when? Map out the possible outcomes of your choices and decide which one best serves your tournament life and career.
And when in doubt, trust that the computer knows what it’s talking about.
Good luck out there.
When to 3-bet? When not to 3-bet? Learn all about how to construct your MTT 3-bet ranges here: Building Bluffing Ranges Like the Pros: A Guide to Smarter 3-Bets.
