Big Stack Advantage on the Stone Bubble: Why the Rich Get Richer
This is it.
The final part of what started as a three (now four) part series on soft and stone bubble play.
To go back and read those previous articles, see below:
The goal of this series is to understand what’s happening at these tournament stages and how we can apply those insights in real life.
What you play, how you play, and who you play are all affected by ICM.
For some, it’s surprising to learn that risk premiums influence strategy well before the money bubble. In theory, they’re present from the very start.
It’s no surprise that short stacks tighten up on the stone bubble. What is surprising is just how tight they need to be.
Today, I’m focusing on big stack and mid stack play with 126 players left in a 1,000-runner field that pays 125. Like in the previous article, I’m using two HRC sims—one where the table chip leader is Under the Gun (UTG), and one where they’re on the Button (BTN).
Let’s get into it.
“The Rich Get Richer” – MTT Big Stack
Having a big stack is always a good thing, but in high-ICM environments like the money bubble or final tables, the advantages are amplified.
That’s because the players around you are facing steep risk premiums when they play pots against you.
Take a look below.
These are our bubble factors. The UTG chipleader (50bb) has low risk premiums versus everyone at the table (top row, left to right). Conversely, each player has a significant risk premium versus them (far left-hand column, top down). Risk premiums are the additional equity needed to play for stacks. This means responding ranges tighten up considerably.
Because the risk premiums are so high against the big stack, optimal play from the other stacks is heavily influenced by the big stack’s position and actions, whether they raise or fold.
No one wants to tangle with them.
That dynamic acts as a kind of cheat code, letting the big stack play actively and aggressively with minimal resistance.
Let’s take a look at their opening range when they’re UTG.
HRC RFI strategy for UTG playing a 50bb stack in an asymmetric configuration (28bb average, one from ITM). UTG vpips 26.3%.
Red: Min open. White: Fold.
For reference, see the following chipEV raise first in (RFI) chart for UTG at 50bb effective.
Lucid Poker’s UTG opening range for 50bb effective. UTG opens 17%. In chips, UTG opens 9.3% tighter than in this ICM context.
While the short stack tightens up to survive, the big stack does the opposite—opening very liberally, much wider than in a chipEV scenario.
Even hands like 44 and 65 suited make it into the big stack’s UTG range, combos we typically see from later positions. These hands don’t block any of the opponents’ value 3-bets, which highlights just how much the bubble dynamics tilt things in the big stack’s favor. They can simply go for it. And go for it, they do.
In the earlier HRC output (above), you’ll notice the UTG chipleader opens an expanded offsuit Ax range (like A7 and A5), more middling suited gappers (J8s, T8s), suited Kx down to K4, and all the offsuit broadways.
Compared to chipEV, this looks somewhere between a Lojack (LJ) and Hijack (HJ) opening range, which is very wide for first position.
Seeing this, there’s a natural urge to play back. But before you let your machismo take over, read the next part.
HRC output actions overview showing responses to UTG’s min-open. The first column shows the actions (R: Raise, C: Call, 3B: 3-bet). The second column shows the big blinds for each action. The third column shows the respective player/position. The fourth column shows their range in each given action.
Look at the responses to the UTG open. There is a noticeable lack of 3-betting from the players to act despite facing a wide opening range. This illustrates the weight of high-risk premiums on the other players.
It’s not that they don’t realize they’re being run over. It’s that there’s not much they can do about it.
You’ll see the same dynamic when the big stack is on the Button. Let’s take a look.
HRC RFI strategy for BTN playing a 50bb stack in an asymmetric configuration (28bb average, one from ITM). BTN vpips 60.7%.
Red: Min open. White: Fold.
Here on the Button, the table chipleader plays about 7% more hands than in chipEV. Anything moderately playable gets the green light.
But this isn’t an “any two” spot. In fact, the increase in RFI percentage is smaller here than it was UTG. That’s not because the Button is being cautious; it’s simply that they’re already opening close to the profitable limit. It’s a wide range, just not a reckless one.
Because the Big Blind has a playable stack, many hands will be played postflop. That means the Button needs some level of postflop playability. The chipleader can’t afford to bleed chips in bad spots.
Their goal is simple: steal a lot of blinds and win a lot of small pots. That’s achievable with a reasonably wide range. But going too loose, hands like J3 offsuit or 62 suited, can sabotage that plan, leading to expensive bluffs and domination traps.
Now let’s turn to the mid stacks.
The MTT Middle Class
Most tournament poker play exists between the extremities: the mid-stack.
Once you understand how the short stack and big stack operate on the bubble, it becomes easier to approximate how you should play when you’re in between. Like the short stack, survival is a factor. But with a bit more cushion, the mid-stack can get involved, at least when their tournament life isn’t directly at risk.
Let’s look at a mid-stack in early position after the chipleader folds UTG.
HRC RFI strategy for EP playing a 33bb stack in an asymmetric configuration (28bb average, one from ITM).
EP vpips 25.1%.
Red: Min open. White: Fold.
What stands out immediately is that this mid-stack can open considerably wide, playing about a quarter of the deck. That’s over 4% wider than chipEV from the same position.
But wait, shouldn’t we be tightening up this close to the money?
If you’re asking that, you’re not alone.
Just as there’s a common misconception that the big stack should relentlessly play chicken with everyone, there’s also a misconception that mid-stacks should just stay out of the way.
These are both unsupported and exaggerated.
The key to ICM is understanding risk premiums.
The big stack faces low risk premiums against the table, while everyone else faces high risk premiums against them. That dynamic allows the big stack to open wide and expect plenty of folds.
A similar principle applies here. After the big stack folds, this mid-stack, who now covers most of the remaining players, widens their range. In effect, they become the de facto chip leader for this hand.
For context, see the stack setups for this sim (below).
Table setup for the current HRC output. EP (33bb) is only covered by SB (39bb) after UTG (50bb) folds. This creates an environment where EP’s range widens.
But what happens if the big stack is one of the remaining players to act?
Take a look at the output below, where the chipleader is on the Button and your position has stayed the same.
HRC RFI strategy for EP playing a 33bb stack in an asymmetric configuration (28bb average, one from ITM). EP vpips 21.4%.
In this sim, BTN has 50bb and is the table chipleader, and the larger midstack (39.55bb) is in the BB.
Red: Min open. White: Fold.
The table stack setup for the above RFI chart.
Notice that when the big stack is still to act, the mid-stack’s range contracts back toward normal levels.
What might be surprising is that they still open slightly wider than chipEV. Even with the big stack on the Button and a larger mid-stack in the Big Blind, this mid-stack doesn’t shut it down—they still play poker.
That’s because some shorter stacks have a higher risk premium against this mid-stack than vice versa. And while the larger stacks to act do apply some pressure, they also face a non-zero risk premium when playing back.
This means the mid-stack can still profitably open a reasonable range.
This helps clarify how a mid-stack should generally approach play near the money.
You want to get involved when no one can really hurt you. If there are a few stacks you cover, even if some players still cover you, you’ll still be opening hands.
It’s only when most of the remaining stacks to act have you covered that you need to significantly tighten up.
See below.
HRC RFI strategy for HJ playing a 25 big blind stack in an asymmetric configuration (28bb average, one from ITM). HJ vpips 21.1%.
In this sim, CO has 19.5bb, BTN has 50bb, SB has 29bb, and BB has 39bb.
Red: Min open. White: Fold.
Since most of the stacks left to act can put HJ at risk (except CO), the HJ plays a range much tighter than chipEV (28%). For reference, see below.
Lucid Poker HJ opening range for 25bb effective. HJ opens 28%. In chips, UTG opens almost 7% wider than in this ICM context.
In chipEV, the Hijack opens about 28% of the deck. But on the stone bubble—when covered by most of the remaining players—they tighten up by roughly 7%, or about a quarter of that range.
This highlights how dynamic bubble play really is. It’s not as simple as “tight short stack, passive mid-stack, maniac big stack,” or “loose early position, tight late position.”
Instead, it’s a balancing act—one that depends on the stack sizes around you, your position, your stack relative to others, and how meaningful the min-cash is compared to the buy-in.
Key Takeaways
Bubble play isn’t just about survival; it’s about risk premiums.
It’s not that short stacks or mid-stacks can’t stack off. It’s that they need additional equity to do so. That pressure influences everything: opens, 3-bets, 4-bets, and postflop decisions.
For short stacks, this means tightening up. For big stacks, it means applying pressure. And for mid-stacks, it’s a sliding scale based on how many players can knock them out and how many they cover.
On the bubble, it’s entirely possible to win chips while losing money.
And remember: in large fields, the bubble is not the time to play for the win. So maybe think twice before you go trying to stick it to someone “just because.”
Hope you cash the next one.
To learn more about how to use aggression to win poker tournaments, read: This Greedy Value Bet Strategy Will Help You Win More Tournaments.
