LLinusLLove vs. AbsoluteTopUp: A Masterclass in Flush Draw Dynamics

I’ve got a hand straight from the Cash Game World Championship hosted by CoinPoker. This one features Linus “LLinusLL0ve” Loeliger and Armin “AbsoluteTopUp”—two of the top No-Limit Hold’em players in the world.

The blinds are $50/$100 and—spoiler alert—the stacks are about to swap places.

Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!

Preflop Action

AbsoluteTopUp opens up the action with a $300 raise from the Small Blind, holding Qd 4d. LLinusLL0ve flats in the Big Blind with Ad 2d.

Simple Preflop Analysis

AbsoluteTopUp should either use a pure raise-only strategy or a mixed strategy that includes both raises and limps. In either case, Qd 4d is strong enough to open-raise.

Linus should be 3-betting with a wide, polarized range, and Ad 2d is a strong candidate for inclusion in both his 3-bet and flatting ranges.

Preflop Analysis

AbsoluteTopUp can opt for either a mixed strategy (including both limps and open-raises) or a pure raise-or-fold strategy. Both options have roughly the same EV, with a slight edge in favor of the mixed approach at equilibrium.

Most players—even at high stakes—default to a raise-or-fold strategy, and AbsoluteTopUp seems to lean that way. Interestingly, Linus is one of the few players known to consistently employ a mixed strategy from the Small Blind.

Qd 4d is strong enough to open-raise from this position, and at equilibrium it mixes between limping and raising.

Ad 2d is also strong enough to continue, and Linus should be mixing between calling and 3-betting.

From a macro perspective, Linus’s 3-betting range here should be polarized, built from strong value hands and low-equity bluffs. That includes:

• Value region: strong pocket pairs (88+), suited connectors, strong suited broadways, AQo+, and some AJo/KQo.
• Bluff region: a mix of trashier hands like mid-to-low Ax offsuit, Kx/Qx/Jx/Tx offsuit, plus some low suited junk like J7s, J6s, etc.

Flop Action

The flop comes Jc 6s 5d, bringing the pot to $600.

AbsoluteTopUp (Qd 4d) c-bets for $180, and Linus (Ad 2d) makes the call.

Simple Flop Analysis

With Qd 4d, AbsoluteTopUp should mix between betting small and checking. The hand has solid bluffing qualities: a backdoor flush draw, multiple backdoor straight draws, and an overcard.

With Ad 2d, Linus has a super easy call. He beats all of Armin’s bluffs, holds an overcard, the backdoor nut flush draw, and multiple backdoor straight draws.

Flop Analysis

AbsoluteTopUp holds the range advantage on this flop. His edge comes from overpairs, a slight advantage in top and middle pairs (77–TT), and stronger non-made hands like AK, AQ, and similar high cards.

The nut distribution is either symmetrical or slightly in favor of Linus, primarily because Linus can have 65 offsuit, while Armin likely cannot. However, this edge is marginal and doesn’t meaningfully impact the strategic balance.

That said, the majority of AbsoluteTopUp’s range has missed this board, and his range advantage isn’t significant enough to justify a full-range c-bet. As a result, his value hands need to mix between betting and checking in order to protect the equity of his weaker holdings and prevent the air region from being overly denied.

With Qd 4d, AbsoluteTopUp should mix between checking and betting small. The hand has strong bluffing potential—it holds a backdoor flush draw, multiple backdoor straight draws, and an overcard.

A small bet is optimal on this flop because many hands, such as pocket pairs, 6x, and 5x, want to bet for protection and thin value.

With Ad 2d, Linus has a very easy call. He beats all of Armin’s natural bluffs, holds an overcard, the backdoor nut flush draw, and multiple backdoor straight draws. His continuing range should be very wide here, as he can’t allow AbsoluteTopUp to over-bluff when so many hands in the Small Blind’s range have no showdown value and benefit from betting.

Turn Action

The turn comes the Kd, making the board Jc 6s 5d Kd. The pot is now $960.

AbsoluteTopUp (Qd 4d) bets $720, and Linus (Ad 2d) makes the call.

Simple Turn Analysis

Qd 4d is a powerhouse bluffing hand in this spot—it’s the second nut flush draw and still has an overcard to the Jc, making a bet optimal.

Linus could consider raising with his nut flush draw here. Doing so might fold out dominating hands like AQ and AT, while also clearing out AbsoluteTopUp’s bluffing range by denying its equity. That said, it’s difficult to determine whether raising or calling has the higher expected value—it’s likely a close decision either way.

Turn Analysis

The Kd turn is one of the best cards in the deck for Armin. He picks up disproportionately more top pairs than Linus, and also has more two-pair combos and sets, since many of Linus’s would have raised the flop.

AbsoluteTopUp’s bet size here is somewhat surprising. The optimal sizing strategy on this turn is typically a split between a block bet and an overbet—with the smaller size used for second pairs (Jx) and underpairs (Qx), and the overbet reserved for top pairs and better (Kx+). That said, a hybrid strategy—like the one Armin appears to be using—can be constructed without any EV loss.

Qd 4d is a powerhouse bluffing hand in this spot. It’s the second nut flush draw and still holds an overcard to the Jack, making a bet the optimal play.

Linus could consider raising with his nut flush draw here. Doing so might fold out some dominating hands like AQ and AT, while also denying equity to AbsoluteTopUp’s bluffing range. That said, it’s difficult to say definitively whether raising or calling has the higher expected value—it’s likely a close decision either way.

River Action

The river comes the 3d, completing the board: Jc 6s 5d Kd 3d. The pot is now $2,400.

AbsoluteTopUp bets $1,608. Linus shoves all-in for $8,800, and AbsoluteTopUp makes the call—only to see the bad news.

Linus scoops the $20,000 pot.

Simple River Analysis

With the second nut flush, betting or checking are both viable options. Any size, from a block bet to an overbet, is reasonable. It all depends on how Linus is expected to respond to each line.

Against the bet, Linus has the easiest decision in the world: shoving while holding the nuts.

And for Armin, it’s equally simple—an easy call with the second nuts.

River Analysis

The river 3d is a brick, and one of the worst rivers for AbsoluteTopUp’s range. It’s a bad card because most of his turn bluffs have now missed.

At this point, he should consider lowering his bet size, allowing his Kx hands to extract value from Jx and worse, while also minimizing losses against the top of Linus’s range. He should also include some flushes in this betting range to protect it from thin value raises and excessive bluffing.

With the second nut flush, betting or checking are both reasonable options. Any sizing, from a block bet to an overbet, can be viable, depending on how Linus is expected to respond to each line.

Against the bet, Linus has the easiest decision in the world—shoving while holding the nuts. To balance these value hands (like Jx of diamonds or better), he should mix in some bluffs using hands such as Qd Tx, Kx Qd, Ad Tx, or Ad Jx.

Armin also has an easy call with the second nuts. However, he’d face a much tougher decision holding Ad Ax or Ad Kx.

Final Thoughts

This was a pretty standard hand from both players—there were no clear mistakes by either of them. Armin’s turn and river bet sizes deviated slightly from solver-preferred lines, but those are far from errors. If anything, they reflect a stylistic choice within the margin of optimal play.

This is exactly the kind of hand you’d expect to see between two world-class players: clean, measured, and well played.

That’s all for this article! I hope you enjoyed it—and more importantly, I hope you learned something. As always, if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to leave a comment down below.

Till next time, good luck, grinders!

To learn about more battles between HSNL legends, read: DavyJones922 vs Barak Wisbrod in a $46,100 NLHE Pot.