kenney vs foxen wynn millions

The Filthiest Hand from the $10,000,000 Wynn Millions (Analysis)

Imagine this…

You are playing one of the first $10,000 buy-in tournaments post-lockdown, and it’s the biggest tournament of the summer.

You build up a huge stack on day 1 — one of, if not the biggest in the field — only to run the best possible full house into a top pro’s quads on day 2.

Sounds unrealistic, doesn’t it? Well, it was an unfortunate reality for Bryn Kenney at the $10,000,000 GTD Wynn Millions versus Alex Foxen.

Let’s jump into the hand.

Background

Game: €10K $10,000,000 GTD Wynn Millions

Format: No Limit Hold ‘em

Blinds: 1,500/2,500

Ante: 2,500 BB ante

Stage: Level 12

Effective Stacks: ~100bb

Preflop

Bryn Kenney open-raised to an unknown size (we’ll assume 2.2bb for this article) with A Q♣. Alex Foxen calls from the Hijack with 3♣ 3♠. The Button and Big Blind also call, making it four ways to the flop. 

Preflop analysis

With Ace-Queen offsuit, Bryn Kenney has a standard open.

Facing a raise with a small pocket pair, Alex Foxen has a standard call for several reasons:

  • They are playing with deep stacks, which means he has more implied odds for when he hits a set.
  • The presence of antes allows you to call more hands than you can in cash games.
  • Pocket threes will play well if the pot goes multiway, which is fairly likely with 4 player behind.

Let’s see three!

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The Advanced Solver Ranges for cash games — one of five sets of preflop charts in the Upswing Lab.

Flop

Pot size: 10.3bb

Board: A♠ A 3

Action: Big Blind checks. Kenney bets 3.6bb. Foxen calls. Button folds. Big Blind folds.

Flop analysis

Kenney has an easy c-bet with trips. He elects to bet small, about 1/3 of the pot, which is standard when c-betting out of position, especially in multiway pots.

Foxen’s decision to just call in position with his full house is perfect. Slow-playing ensures that all of Kenney’s bluffs remain in his range. If Kenney has a hand like QJ or a flush draw, for example, he may continue barreling depending on the turn card. Additionally, he is usually going to carry on betting his value hands on the turn (mostly Ax).

Turn

Pot size: 17.5bb

Board: (A♠ A 3) 3

Action: Kenney bets 4bb. Foxen calls.

Turn analysis

Talk about an action card. The 3gives Kenney a full house and Foxen quads.

Kenney chooses a really small bet size here on the turn with his full house, and it’s hard to say why. Perhaps he is trying to target the medium pocket pairs in Foxen’s range (44 through TT), which are in a somewhat tough spot versus this bet size. That said, solvers prefer a bigger bet size in this spot.

Foxen elects to call to continue setting the trap, which is certainly fine with quads. Raising to get value from Kenney’s Ace-X hands is also a fine play. Foxen really can’t go wrong — he’s in a dream spot.

River

Pot size: 25.5bb

Board: (A♠ A 3 3) Q♠

Action: Kenney checks. Foxen overbets 44.8bb. Kenney re-raises all-in for 96bb Foxen calls.

River analysis

A gross river improves Kenney to the best possible full house, which is pipped by Foxen’s quads.

Kenney’s check on the river is a great play. Checking allows Foxen to bluff with his missed flush draws (which may or may not call on the turn) and perhaps hands like 44/55 — Foxen is certainly capable of turning made hands into bluffs. Foxen will also value bet most or all of his Ax hands, which he will have a tough time folding versus a check-raise all-in. 

Facing the check, Foxen (obviously) should bet for value with quads. The only question is: what size should he use to extract the most value possible?

Foxen’s big overbet (nearly 200% pot) makes a lot of sense. He is targeting all of Kenney’s Ace-X hands that will certainly call.

Back to Kenney, who thinks he is in a dream spot. He chooses to go all-in with his aces full of queens, trying to get called by Foxen’s inferior Ace-X hands. However, Foxen snap-calls and shows Kenney the bad news.

Results

Alex Foxen wins 217.5bb with quad threes and Kenney is eliminated from the tournament in a brutal cooler. That’s one way to go from big stack to out!

Foxen ended up finishing the tournament in 57th place for $46,406.

What do you think of this hand?

Let us know in the comments below.

If you want more hand analysis, check out 14 Players Away from €300,000 — Should He Hero Call This Hand?

That’s it for today. Take care!

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Josh Jones

Josh Jones

Just an MTT player trying to get to the long term #variance

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