Results & Pro Analysis from Doug Polk

Preflop analysis: This is a standard open from UTG by Sergio. We’re going to want to open all our suited aces here. Having an Ace makes it less likely our opponents have a strong hand, and Ax suited hands have a lot of equity against typical calling ranges.

Flop analysis: Sergio has an interesting decision here. He could bet the flop with the backdoor nut flush draw and continue betting if he turns a wheel draw or a flush draw, or he could check and take a free card. I think both options are totally fine.

Turn analysis: Sergio could certainly bet again here with top pair, but if he bets every ace on the turn (and A2 is his worse ace), then he will never have top pair when he checks the turn. In this spot stronger players will check some top pairs on the turn so their check back range can have a few aces in it. Don't get me wrong, usually when you turn top pair you want to keep firing, but occasionally it's good to mix in some checks that can do well against a big bet from your opponent on the river.

River analysis: The river is an interesting card. Now if either player had QJ they have the nuts. It's not too likely Sergio has QJ here, because if he bet the flop with QJ, he’s almost always going to be looking to keep barrelling on the turn. Moneymaker, however, could definitely have QJ, and at these stack sizes he might not have wanted to raise the flop, meaning he could easily have 16 combinations of QJ. It makes sense if Moneymaker had QJ that he would try to trap Sergio by checking to him in hopes that Sergio will either try to bluff or bet a worse hand. Moneymaker should also check his 9x and Tx hands as he will have worse hands here to bluff with, and 4th and 5th pair still have some showdown value.  

When Moneymaker takes a line like this, he will typically have a hand like 9x or Tx. This makes for a great situation for the early position raiser because they can have a lot of strong hands and the big blind just doesn’t. I like a value bet here if I’m Sergio.

When Sergio gets check raised here he cannot be a happy camper. His opponent is saying he's got a hand like QJ. In this situation, Sergio will need to have to call with some hands he isn’t happy about calling with. Any ace might need to be a call here especially given that after checking turn this is one of the strongest hands Sergio could have. Moneymaker could be deciding to turn his hand into a bluff here and be check raising some of his 9x or Tx hands. I’d like to see a call here from Sergio.

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