Poker Pop Quiz: Can She Fold a Flush After This Brutally Bad Turn Card?
The game is $200/$400 No Limit Hold’em. Justin Smith has $76,000 in his stack and Annette Obrestad covers.
Orbestad is on the button with:
Justin Smith raises to $1200 from the Cutoff. Only Obrestad calls.
Flop (Pot: $3,300)
The flop is
Smith checks. Orbestad bets $2,600. Smith Calls.
Turn (Pot: $8,500)
The turn is the
Smith checks. Orbestad bets $6,000. Smith Calls.
River (Pot: $20,500)
The river is the
Smith checks. Orbestad bets $30,000. Smith raises to $66,400 all-in
Take a moment to decide. Watch the video or click below for the results.
Pro Analysis from Doug Polk
Annette has a really tough decision to make.She has a few bluffs and lower flushes in her range that she will have to fold, but what hands should she be calling with?
Obviously she will call with full houses, but if she only calls with full houses, Justin starts to get a pretty good price on his bluff. Justin is risking $66,000 to win $50,000, so if Annette starts folding more than ~60% of the time, Justin’s bluff becomes incredibly profitable.
Annette definitely has to call some hands here- low flushes seem like folds, full houses are easy calls and high flushes seem close. This spot is so close it doesn't matter much which way you go, but I lean towards folding this specific hand.