Bluffing is an indispensable part of the game—as Doug likes to say, “Bluffing is life in poker.”
In this article, we’ll discuss how to go about choosing hands to semi-bluff, and we’ll break down the process that every elite player uses to fine-tune this aspect of their game.
Semi-bluffing means betting or raising with a draw that may be losing in equity but may improve to win on later streets. For example, on a flop of A♠ 9♥ 8♥, hands like Q♠ J♠, J♥ T♣ and 5♥ 4♥ are semi-bluffs, as they can improve to straights and/or flushes on later streets.
There are two criteria a hand must satisfy to be a good candidate for semi-bluffing on the flop:
We’ll use the following tools to determine which draws we should semi-bluff:
Let’s begin by going through hands, both in position and out of position, to learn from the solver’s calculations. (If you’re not a solver-friendly player, you can skip to the conclusions drawn by each simulation.)
Playing out of position (OOP) with a tight range versus a cold caller who also has a tight range is one of the toughest spots in No Limit Hold’em. Consequently, there is a lot of debate about the correct way to approach it.
That being said, we can learn some things from the solver by understanding how it arrives at its solutions.
Let’s look first at a wet board and then a dry one, and draw conclusions about each.
Take a look at the following hand:
Online $0.25/$0.50. 6-Handed. Effective Stacks $50.00.
Hero is dealt two cards in middle position (MP)
utg folds. Hero raises to $1.10. co folds. Button (BU) calls. 2 folds.
Flop ($2.95): Q♥ 9♠ 6♠
Hero…?
Let’s start with each player’s preflop ranges. Here is our Hero’s range for raising preflop from MP:
Yellow = Raise from MP, Grey = Fold
And here is the BU’s calling range:
Yellow = Call vs MP, Grey = Not called
Now, let’s break out the solver to learn more about this spot.
The solver is set for calculating the game theory optimal (GTO) solution for a two-thirds pot-sized-bet. Let’s see what the solver says:
We can see that the solver c-bets at a very low frequency (19.51%) in this spot. This is no surprise given that we are OOP with the weaker range (we have around 47% equity against the BU’s range on this board).
This is what the solver suggests bluffing frequencies should be:
We can see that all the frequencies are mixed and it seems that the expected value (EV) is quite similar between c-betting and checking in this spot when betting this size.
Using complex mixed frequencies like this isn’t possible in-game, though, so we need to simplify–or humanize–the solver’s suggestions. One way to do so would be as follows:
This results in a well-balanced range that is hard to exploit.
Pro tip: Checking your entire range when OOP in this type of spot is a decent strategy that is simpler to implement.
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Let’s take a look at another hand:
Online $0.25/$0.50. 6-Handed. Effective Stacks $50.00.
Hero is dealt two cards in MP
Utg folds. Hero raises to $1.1. Co folds. BU calls. 2 folds.
Flop ($2.95): A♣ 9♦ 3♠
Hero…?
We don’t have any draws to bluff with on uncoordinated boards like this, so we’ll need to get creative to balance our value betting range. With that in mind, let’s refer to the solver:
Again, more mixed frequencies with almost every non-made hand c-betting at least a small percentage of the time. Though it seems the solver doesn’t like to c-bet off-suit broadways, KQs, and KTs.
To humanize the solution on boards like this, we could semi-bluff with all the suited non-made hands except KQs, and AQs with a backdoor flush draw will be the bottom of our value betting range.
This strategy is well-balanced, and it gives us a good bluff-to-value ratio on the flop.
We can bet more often when in position (IP), and so playing this spot correctly will have a greater impact on your winnings. We will often times have a range advantage, which will work together with our positional advantage to further increase our EV.
Let’s again discuss what to do on at a wet board and then a dry board.
Online $0.50/$1. 6-Handed. Effective Stacks $100.00.
Hero is dealt two cards on the BU
3 folds. Hero raises to $2.2. SB folds. BB calls.
Flop ($4.70): Q♥ 9♠ 6♠
Hero…?
Let’s see what the solver is up to in this spot:
Here is the frequency at which the solver recommends c-betting with each type of draw:
Once again, since we as humans could never implement such a complex strategy, we need to humanize the solution to guide our decision making. Here’s how I would approach semi-bluffing with each hand type in this spot:
Online $0.50/$1. 6-Handed. Effective Stacks $100.00.
Hero is dealt two cards on the BU
3 folds. Hero raises to $2.2. SB folds. BB calls.
Flop ($4.7): J♠ 6♣ 2♦
Hero…?
Again we are faced with a board that has almost no connectivity, and the only draws are 54s, 53s and 43s. So, there simply aren’t enough draws to semi-bluff with—we need to use other hands. Let’s see what the solver says:
We can see that the solver bluffs at a decent frequency with every non-made hand. It almost seems as though each hand’s equity doesn’t matter, with every non-made hand being played very similarly.
Now let’s humanize this solution. Here’s one way to organize our range in this spot without using mixed frequencies:
Red = Bet, Green = Check, Grey = Not in Range
So, our semi-bluffs on this board would include:
Keep in mind this is just one way of building a well-balanced range. This is where a player’s unique abilities and style might come into play.
As these examples reflect, playing a solid strategy IP differs drastically from playing one when OOP.
The main reason for this is an obvious and fundamental part of poker: we are at an informational disadvantage when OOP and thus need to disguise and protect our range. C-betting with every draw when OOP sacrifices a lot of EV, but when IP, we can often times c-bet every draw with near-impunity.
That’s all for today! Be sure to leave questions and feedback in the comments section below.
Good luck, grinders!
The Upswing Lab is what our world-class coaches would teach their younger selves about poker. The Lab includes 57 learning modules and 136 Play & Explain videos.
Each Play & Explain is full of valuable strategic wisdom. Each learning module covers a different poker topic, including:
Overbet Strategy with Doug Polk
G.T.O. with Matthew Janda
Introduction to Solvers with Fried Meulders
Multiway Pots with Ryan Fee & Doug Polk
The Final Table with Ryan Fee & tonkaaaap
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